PUBLICATIONS BY Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Research
Commentary
Media Appearances
2009 Research
November 09, 2009
Dangerous Trajectories: Obama's Approach to Arms Control Misreads Russian Nuclear Strategy
By Ariel Cohen Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2338)
Russia still considers the United States its "principal adversary." Russia also relies on its nuclear weapons to compensate for its inferiority in conventional weapons relative to the U.S., NATO, and China. Russian political and military leaders are still captives of czarist and Soviet geopolitical thinking and military traditions. U.S. policymakers need to understand this background and Russia's Soviet-style negotiating tactics when negotiating realistic and verifiable arms control agreements with Russia. The Obama Administration's wishful thinking and unilateral concessions will not prevent a new arms race.
November 02, 2009
Russia's Economic Crisis and U.S.-Russia Relations: Troubled Times Ahead
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Richard E. Ericson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2333)
Russia's revenues from oil and natural gas are enabling its aggressive and often anti-Western foreign policy. Russia's falling economic performance has toned down Russia's rhetoric, but has not drastically changed Russia's foreign policy narrative, which remains decidedly anti-status quo and implicitly anti-American. The U.S. needs to devise incentives for steps that facilitate Russia's integration into global markets, but deny benefits if Russia continues to pursue anti-American policies or refuses to enact the needed changes.
November 02, 2009
Executive Summary: Russia's Economic Crisis and U.S.-Russia Relations: Troubled Times Ahead
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Richard E. Ericson, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2333)
Russia's revenues from oil and natural gas are enabling its aggressive and often anti-Western foreign policy. Russia's falling economic performance has toned down Russia's rhetoric, but has not drastically changed Russia's foreign policy narrative, which remains decidedly anti-status quo and implicitly anti-American. The U.S. needs to devise incentives for steps that facilitate Russia's integration into global markets, but deny benefits if Russia continues to pursue anti-American policies or refuses to enact the needed changes.
October 01, 2009
A Policy Agenda for the U.S.-Russia Congressional Caucus
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2636)
The Congressional Russia Caucus should guard American interests while promoting an agenda which encourages security, freedom, democracy, and economic cooperation with Russia.
July 27, 2009
Joe Biden's Trip to Ukraine and Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2565)
As Joe Biden visited Kyiv and Tbilisi, the Obama Administration managed to dilute a key message--that Russia should respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors.
June 25, 2009
The U.S. Agenda for the Obama-Medvedev Summit
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2506)
On July 7, Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev will meet for their first full-fledged summit in Moscow. There are many issues President Obama must address and several courses of action he should take.
April 06, 2009
Obama in Ankara: Turkey's Dangerous Drift
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #2383)
President Obama's visit to Turkey highlights the importance Washington attaches to this country as a key regional player, a veteran NATO ally, and an influential Muslim state.
March 27, 2009
Russia and Eurasia: A Realistic Policy Agenda for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Special Report #49)
Russia, seeking a new place in the global architecture, is pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy. President Barack Obama and his Administration will need to tread carefully when confronting the mix of great-power anti–status quo revisionism and resentment, recent symptoms of which include the Russian–Georgian war, energy conflicts in Europe, Russian pressure against Ukraine, and consolidation of Russian power in Eurasia.
March 27, 2009
The Obama-Medvedev G-20 Meeting: The Agenda for the First Encounter
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2368)
The United States can explore Russia's willingness to rethink its relationship with Iran, yet Washington should not bargain away its own interests or those of its allies.
March 20, 2009
The Russia–Iran S-300 Air Defense Systems Deal: Beware of Russians Bearing Gifts
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2350)
The Obama Administration should use extreme caution in negotiating Russian cooperation on Iran.
March 19, 2009
How the Obama Administration Should Engage Russia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Testimony #9999)
President Barack Obama has expressed a desire to constructively engage Russia and has also expressed concerns over Russia’s increasingly truculent behavior and the threat it poses to the current international system.
March 12, 2009
How the Obama Administration Should Deal with Russia's Revisionist Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2246)
How the Obama Administration Should Deal with Russia's Revisionist Foreign Policy
February 10, 2009
U.S.-Russia Relations after Manas: Do Not Push the Reset Button Yet
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2286)
Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia. The Obama Administration, however, needs to proceed with caution.
January 30, 2009
Russia's Drive for Global Economic Power: A Challenge for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2235)
Russia's Drive for Global Economic Power: A Challenge for the Obama Administration
January 30, 2009
Executive Summary: Russia's Drive for Global Economic Power: A Challenge for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2235)
Russia's Drive for Global Economic Power: A Challenge for the Obama Administration
January 08, 2009
European Security and Russia's Natural Gas Supply Disruption
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #2194)
On January 1, 2009, Russia’s state monopoly OAO Gazprom began reducing gas supplies to Ukraine. Moscow and Kiev had failed to negotiate the price for natural gas, and the initial reduction affected six additional countries: Czech Republic, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Motives for the Russian action include sending a signal to Europe that Ukraine should not be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic zone, but remain within the Russian sphere of influence.
2008 Research
December 18, 2008
The Oil-Price Roller Coaster: Global Challenges for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(Backgrounder #2216)
The U.S. should increase pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which are failing to meet production forecasts, to open access to IOCs while authorizing oil production in ANWR, other promising Arctic areas, and the lower 48 states to expand domestic energy production. Rising oil consumption within key oil-producing states leaves less oil for export, posing a significant constraint on future supply.
December 18, 2008
Executive Summary: The Oil-Price Roller Coaster: Global Challenges for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(Executive Summary #2216)
The U.S. should increase pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which are failing to meet production forecasts, to open access to IOCs while authorizing oil production in ANWR, other promising Arctic areas, and the lower 48 states to expand domestic energy production. Rising oil consumption within key oil-producing states leaves less oil for export, posing a significant constraint on future supply.
November 20, 2008
Europe Anti-Missile Defense System: Standing Up to Russia's Threats
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #2139)
The Obama Administration should reject Russia's missile threats and resist Russian pressure, if only to avoid the appearance of weakness and to discourage Russia's strategic revisionism
November 10, 2008
The Global Response to a Terror-Generated Energy Crisis
By William W. Beach, James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., David W. Kreutzer, Ph.D., Karen A. Campbell, Ph.D., and Hopper Smith
(Center for Data Analysis Report #08-11)
In June 2008, The Heritage Foundation invited energy scholars and policy experts to participate in a computer simulation and gaming exercise assessing the economic effects of a global petroleum energy crisis. This exercise suggests reliance on market forces and coordinated security activities did much to help restore the confidence of markets and consumers.
October 30, 2008
The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
(Backgrounder #2202)
U.S. Arctic policy is moribund and needs a comprehensive revival. The USGS estimates that the Arctic might hold up to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. To protect U.S. rights, mapping is essential and the U.S. icebreaker fleet needs to be replaced with a modern flotilla of icebreakers.
October 30, 2008
Executive Summary: The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
(Executive Summary #2202)
U.S. Arctic policy is moribund and needs a comprehensive revival. The USGS estimates that the Arctic might hold up to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. To protect U.S. rights, mapping is essential and the U.S. icebreaker fleet needs to be replaced with a modern flotilla of icebreakers.
October 27, 2008
OPEC Redux: Responding to the Russian–Iranian Gas Cartel
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2118)
On October 21 in Tehran, the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum (GECF) agreed to form a cartel. Russia, Iran, and Qatar announced that they intend to form a yet-unnamed group to “coordinate gas policy.” The United States should create a global coalition of energy consumers to oppose oil and gas cartels and to bring market principles to the natural gas industry.
August 27, 2008
The EU Must Express Solidarity with Georgia at Its Emergency Summit
By Sally McNamara and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2036)
Violent conflict is not a thing of the past for Europe, and the sooner Europe equips itself to confront the challenges of a resurgent Russia, the better. If Europe is to take Moscow’s belligerence seriously, it needs to be ready to act with enough toughness to stop the Russian bear in its tracks.
August 20, 2008
Russian Forces in the Georgian War: Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., James Carafano, Ph.D., Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2031)
After an almost 20-year hiatus, the United States and NATO allies may once again prioritize Russia as a potential threat to the common European security. NATO should send a strong signal to Moscow that its aggression will not stand. This should be done through diplomacy, international organizations, and inventive economic measures. The U.S., its allies, and Europe must do everything possible to reverse Russian aggression against Georgia and to prevent hostile action against European countries.
August 12, 2008
Saving Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2021)
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that Moscow is putting on hold hostilities in Georgia, apparently due to the pleas from Washington as well as European capitals to cease aggression against Georgia.
August 11, 2008
The Russian-Georgian War: A Challenge for the U.S. and the World
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2017)
The U.S. and its European allies should communicate to Moscow that Russia has much to lose, including hosting the 2014 winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi; membership in the G-8; and access to western markets, if the Georgian aggression is not stopped.
August 07, 2008
The Turkish Constitutional Crisis: Resolved—for Now
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2013)
Washington is facing several difficult choices with respect to its friend Turkey. On the one hand, the U.S. supports democracy worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. A ban on AKP would be a setback to U.S. policies designed to foster Middle Eastern democracy. Yet prolonged rule by AKP may transform a U.S. ally into a hostile Islamic republic.
August 05, 2008
Alexander Solzhenitsyn: The Passing of a Titan
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2010)
Alexander Solzhenitsyn (1918-2008) was a titan of twentieth century Russian literature and politics. He survived the Stalinist purges, World War II, eight years in the Gulag, communist denunciation, and even a battle with cancer. We who lived who benefited from the man’s literary and intellectual gifts should acknowledge and remember his talent, moral stature and courage.
July 21, 2008
The Russia-Venezuela Axis: Using Energy for Geopolitical Advantage
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Ray Walser, Ph.D
(WebMemo #2000)
A Russian-Venezuelan axis is a 21st-century throwback to the Cold War Soviet-Cuban alliance. Such a partnership bodes ill for energy security, for freedom in both nations, and for the Western Hemisphere.
June 09, 2008
What Is Driving the High Oil Prices?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #1951)
As oil and gasoline prices surpass $134 per barrel and $4 per gallon, respectively, it is clear that significant change is underway in global energy markets, portending major challenges for the global economy and energy security.
May 30, 2008
Executive Summary: The Proposed Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline: An Unacceptable Risk to Regional Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lisa Curtis, and Owen Graham
(Executive Summary #2139)
The Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline would be contrary to U.S. strategic interests, would destabilize the Persian Gulf, and would strengthen Russia’s grip over Central Asia, decreasing both regional and global energy security. The U.S. should encourage India and Pakistan to pursue better alternatives, such as developing their liquefied natural gas capacities and building the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India natural gas pipeline.
May 30, 2008
The Proposed Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline: An Unacceptable Risk to Regional Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lisa Curtis, and Owen Graham
(Backgrounder #2139)
The Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline would be contrary to U.S. strategic interests, would destabilize the Persian Gulf, and would strengthen Russia’s grip over Central Asia, decreasing both regional and global energy security. The U.S. should encourage India and Pakistan to pursue better alternatives, such as developing their liquefied natural gas capacities and building the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India natural gas pipeline.
May 13, 2008
The U.S. Should Oppose Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian Masters in Lebanon
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1922)
As President Bush prepares to travel to the Middle East, Lebanon's survival as a multi-ethnic, multi-denominational state is at stake. Hezbollah, the Shi'ite terrorist army "made in Iran," demonstrated its force by occupying the capital, Beirut.
May 12, 2008
Congress Should Not Tamper with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1920)
Congress is about to legislate that the U.S. government stop purchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Some believe that this would bring gasoline prices down; in reality, however, shutting down the oil supply to the SPR would jeopardize the security of the United States, and infringe upon the executive authority of the President to ensure the nation’s defense, while having no appreciate effect on gas prices. Congress should leave the SPR alone.
May 06, 2008
Russia's Presidential Transition: Vladimir Putin Remains in Charge
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1917)
Amid Kremlin pomp and circumstance, Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev will be inaugurated the third president of Russia on May 7. His presidency, however, is likely to be very different than that of his two predecessors, Boris N. Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.
April 30, 2008
The West Should Unite in Support of Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1907)
Throughout April, Russia has escalated its political and military pressure on its neighbor Georgia. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, President Vladimir Putin reportedly threatened to recognize the independence of the breakaway autonomous republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia was granted a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for eventual accession to NATO. On April 16, despite France and Germany balking at providing a MAP, and apparently as retribution for the West’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence, Putin instructed the Russian Foreign Ministry to upgrade the legal and economic ties between Russia and the secessionist governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, violating Georgian sovereignty.
April 01, 2008
The Sochi Bush-Putin Summit: Last Chance to Improve Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1877)
Improved relations between the United States and Russia is in the interest of both countries, and President Bush can make it his legacy.
February 25, 2008
Russia's Presidential Elections: Management Reshuffle for "Russia Inc."?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1825)
The status quo will likely continue following the election of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin's chosen successor, on March 2.
February 11, 2008
Russia on the March: The Return of the Red Square Parades
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1805)
The world should take notice of Russia’s increasing militarism.
February 11, 2008
Russia on the March: The Return of the Red Square Parades
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1805)
The world should take notice of Russia’s increasing militarism.
2007 Research
December 11, 2007
Russian Succession: Putin Prime Minister, Medvedev President
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1731)
In all likelihood, Vladimir Putin will remain the number one politician in Russia for years to come.
November 19, 2007
Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2084)
U.S.–Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War, and many trends in Russian foreign policy are justifiably disturbing. U.S. officials should develop a comprehensive strategy that serves America’s objectives, keeping in mind the significant internal vulnerabilities of the Russian state. Russia, given its lack of strategic allies, can ill afford to "lose" the West.
November 19, 2007
Executive Summary: Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2084)
Executive Summary: U.S.–Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War, and many trends in Russian foreign policy are justifiably disturbing. U.S. officials should develop a comprehensive strategy that serves America’s objectives, keeping in mind the significant internal vulnerabilities of the Russian state. Russia, given its lack of strategic allies, can ill afford to "lose" the West.
November 05, 2007
Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2083)
Russia is consolidating its grip on oil and gas: the economic lifeblood of Europe. The U.S. and Europe should support new transit lines that bypass Russia, and European countries should cooperate strategically to ensure their energy security. The U.S. and its European allies must combine their efforts to find and implement innovative ways to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
October 18, 2007
Armenian Genocide Resolution Bad for U.S. Middle East Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Owen Graham, and Garrett Murch
(WebMemo #1668)
This resolution would strain an already fragile relationship with Turkey and endanger U.S. security interests.
October 15, 2007
Russian Trade Associations: Important Partners for America
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Viacheslav Evseev, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2077)
Further advancement of institutionalized business representation in Russia will require joint action by government, business, and Russian trade associations themselves. This should include granting tax exemptions for membership fees and donations, stronger participation by associations in economic decision making, and improving the associations' internal management and professional practices.
October 02, 2007
Elections in Ukraine: A Second Chance for the Orange Revolution?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1654)
The United States must assist Ukraine's transition to a rules-based market system.
September 28, 2007
Ukraine's Economic Benefits from Integration into the Euro-Atlantic Community
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1045)
Europe and its humanistic tradition have always been central to Ukrainian civilization, and Ukraine has been indispensable for Europe. Regardless of whether Ukraine ultimately joins the European Union or the WTO, it will benefit from those extensive domestic reforms, as Turkey has done on its path to European integration.
August 08, 2007
After the Elections: Washington's Turkish Dilemma
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1583)
The party that leads Turkey's government, the AKP, is not the steadfast U.S. ally that its predecessors often were and threatens to turn Turkey from the U.S. and the West and toward its Islamic neighbors.
August 06, 2007
Russia's Race for the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1582)
Russia's attempted grab of Arctic resources is a cause for concern, and the U.S. must engage its allies--especially Canada and the Nordic countries--to formulate a strong response.
July 13, 2007
Africa's Oil and Gas Sector: Implications for U.S. Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Rafal Alasa
(Backgrounder #2052)
Development and transformation of Africa’s energy sector presents a unique opportunity for cooperation between African countries and energy consumers, particularly since Africa is geographically closer to the U.S. and safer than the Middle East; but to attract scarce private global capital, the investment climate must be improved, and significant political and economic hurdles must be overcome.
June 27, 2007
How to Confront Russia's Anti-American Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2048)
As Moscow rejects Western norms, sells weapons to America's enemies, and seeks a natural gas monopoly, especially to influence Europe, U.S. policymakers need to remember that Moscow values certainty in relations and respects power and action. Deeds, not words, are needed to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied.
June 27, 2007
Executive Summary: How to Confront Russia's Anti-American Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2048)
As Moscow rejects Western norms, sells weapons to America’s enemies, and seeks a natural gas monopoly, especially to influence Europe, U.S. policymakers need to remember that Moscow values certainty in relations and respects power and action. Deeds, not words, are needed to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied.
June 19, 2007
Senate Bill 1419, Title VII: A Partial Measure to Increase U.S. Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #1514)
While Title VII has some laudable features, it ignores many short- and long-term threats to U.S. energy security.
June 05, 2007
The G-8 Summit: Putting U.S.-Russia Relations Back On Track
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1484)
President Bush should engage President Putin with a carrot-and-stick approach to repair the United States’ relationship with a resurgent geostrategic heavyweight.
June 05, 2007
Lessons of the Six-Day War
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1489)
On its 40th anniversary, Israel’s stunning victory in the Six-Day War presents important lessons about leadership and strategy in dealing with threats to freedom, then and now.
May 21, 2007
Time for Congress to Lift OPEC's Immunity
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1463)
At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, fighting OPEC’s anticompetitive practices would be a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector.
May 14, 2007
The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1021)
The dependence of the U.S. and the global economy on oil is growing, which can have dire consequences for the economic well-being of the United States. Recognizing the inherent, systemic, and long-term instability of the global oil markets is the first step in addressing the problem the U.S. is facing.
May 03, 2007
Israel's Coming Political Earthquake
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1441)
Washington must continue to support Israel as its strongest ally in the Middle East but recognize also that Mr. Olmert's government is finished.
April 26, 2007
Boris Yeltsin's Historic Role
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1433)
If Russia evolves toward a model of Western democracy, Yeltsin will be remembered as its founding father.
April 12, 2007
Gas OPEC: A Stealthy Cartel Emerges
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1423)
Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel is emerging.
March 20, 2007
Two Cheers for the President's Brazilian Ethanol Initiative
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1401)
Cooperation with Brazil on ethanol will benefit U.S. energy security and U.S. stature in the Western hemisphere, as well as send a message to the truculent leader of Venezuela.
March 05, 2007
Putin's Middle East Visit: Russia is Back
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1382)
After a 20-year hiatus, Russia is forcing its way back through an open Middle East door. Washington decisionmakers had better take note.
February 12, 2007
Confronting Putin's Anti-U.S. Crusade
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1356)
The cold shower that Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on the United States at the international security conference in Munich last weekend should not have come as a surprise. After all, Putin himself and a host of other senior spokesmen have said as much in the past. Clearly, the post-communist honeymoon is over, dead, and buried. The United States should avoid a rhetorical confrontation with Moscow. Deeds, not words, are necessary to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied, but that Washington is not interested in renewed hostility. The U.S. should continue cooperation with Russia on matters of mutual concern, such as energy, non-proliferation, and space.
January 24, 2007
State of the Union 2007: Recognizing the Threat of Strategic Oil Dependency
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1324)
The President points his finger at OPEC.
2006 Research
December 14, 2006
Permanent Normal Trade Relations for Russia Would Benefit the U.S. and Russia
By Daniella Markheim and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1286)
Congressional approval of Permanent Normal Trading Relations for Russia is an important step in strengthening the U.S.–Russia economic relationship.
December 13, 2006
U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Conway Irwin
(Backgrounder #1990)
It is time for the U.S. to launch a coordinated policy effort in the Black Sea area to gain support for addressing such pressing issues as the rise of Iran, WMD proliferation, cooperation in the war on terrorism, and energy security, but the U.S. also needs to tread lightly, offering support where possible and backing off where necessary.
December 13, 2006
U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Conway Irwin
(Executive Summary #1990)
Executive Summary: It is time for the U.S. to launch a coordinated policy effort in the Black Sea area to gain support for addressing such pressing issues as the rise of Iran, WMD proliferation, cooperation in the war on terrorism, and energy security, but the U.S. also needs to tread lightly, offering support where possible and backing off where necessary.
November 17, 2006
The Bush-Putin Hanoi Summit: Iran, Georgia, Energy, and WTO Protocol on the Agenda
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1257)
The summit meeting between President Bush and Russian President Putin provides an opportunity to discuss the key issues of Iran, energy access, trade, and Georgia.
November 15, 2006
U.S. Interests and Central Asia Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1984)
U.S. involvement and assistance contribute to the economic, political, social, and security development of the states of Central Asia. Despite difficult issues in relations between the U.S. and Central Asian states, it is in America’s interest to pursue common goals such as energy development, fighting terrorism, and limiting nuclear non-proliferation.
November 13, 2006
Countering Iran's Oil Weapon
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., James Phillips and William L. T. Schirano
(Backgrounder #1982)
To succeed in deterring Iran from developing a nuclear capability, the Bush Administration needs to maximize its leverage in this dispute by maintaining a strong military presence in the Persian Gulf, improving the Navy’s countermine capabilities, and creating contingency plans to minimize the effects of any disruption in the flow of oil.
October 26, 2006
The North European Gas Pipeline Threatens Europe's Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1980)
To avoid EU overdependence on Russian natural gas, the U.S. and EU governments should encourage alternative pipeline proposals; develop alternatives to pipelines for the transit of natural gas, especially liquid natural gas; work with other G-8 members to persuade Russia to ratify the Energy Charter; and support intensified research and development of alternative market-based energy sources.
October 10, 2006
U.S. Policy and the Georgian-Russian Crisis
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1235)
Crisis looms in the Caucasus
September 15, 2006
After the G-8: The Future Orbit of U.S.–Russian Relations
By David Kramer, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Andrew Kuchins, Ph.D., and Angela Stent, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #962)
The best option for the U.S. and Russia is a pragmatic and realistic relationship based on the cooperative pursuit of common interests.
September 07, 2006
The Dragon Looks West: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
By Ariel Cohen
(Heritage Lecture #961)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a grouping of Russia, China, and several Central Asian states, has an ambitious economic and security agenda infused with Chinese and Russian suspicion of U.S. designs in Eurasia and a desire to reduce U.S. influence in Central Asia.
September 06, 2006
Countering Hugo Chávez’s Anti-U.S. Arms Alliance
By Stephen Johnson, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and William L. T. Schirano
(Executive Memorandum #1010)
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s military buildup and aggressive policies could endanger U.S. allies in Latin America and a major source of U.S. oil imports. U.S. policymakers should strengthen regional alliances to prevent aggression, sanction Chávez in international forums, and press suppliers like Russia to withhold sales of offensive weapons systems
August 02, 2006
Israel Should Confront the Forces Behind Hezbollah
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1184)
Panelists discuss how Israel should confront Hezbollah.
July 20, 2006
U.S. Should Not Impose a Ceasefire Deadline on Israel
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1168)
An unprovoked attack by the Hezbollah ("Party of God," in Arabic) terrorist organization across an internationally recognized border resulted in the killing of eight Israeli soldiers and the taking of two hostages and has plunged the Middle East into a new war.
June 30, 2006
President Bush's Agenda for the G-8 Meeting in St. Petersburg
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1948)
The G-8 meeting on July 15 and the Bush–Putin summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, may mark the most serious tests of U.S.–Russian and East–West relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mutually amassed grievances have led some in Washington to question whether President George W. Bush should attend and whether Russia should remain in the G-8.
June 13, 2006
The U.S. Challenge at the Shanghai Summit
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1124)
On June 15 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will gather for their annual meeting at the birthplace of this Eurasian bloc—Shanghai.
June 01, 2006
Putin's Legacy and United Russia's New Ideology
By Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1940)
Vladislav Surkov's February 2006 speech to a United Russia political seminar combines democratic and market rhetoric with deliberate actions of power centralization and ideological and economic nationalism bordering on protectionism. It also provides a number of reasons for the United States to reevaluate its policies toward Russia on the basis of what is realistic and possible.
May 31, 2006
The Real Culprit Behind Price-Gouging: OPEC
By Ariel Cohen and William L T Schirano
(WebMemo #1102)
State-owned oil companies that make up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and control 80 percent of the world's oil reserves, continue to gouge the American consumer through a series of monopolistic practices. This week, OPEC is expected to announce that it will maintain its current output level—a decision that will do little to ease oil prices. If Congress is serious about alleviating the price-gouging that contributes to high gas prices, it ought to begin by allowing the federal government to sue OPEC. At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, this measure would be a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector. Indeed, this move is long overdue and points the way to a second, more important step: allowing private antitrust suits against OPEC.
April 11, 2006
Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections: What Next?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1034)
On March 26, Ukraine's voters elected 450 members to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, from an array of 45 parties and blocs. Charles Tannock, a British Member of the European Parliament (MEP), who oversaw the Parliament's election observers, said Ukraine had passed an important test of democracy in an "exemplary" fashion.
April 07, 2006
Reducing U.S. Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1926)
To protect its energy security, including its economic health and defense capabilities, from the growing political instability, terrorism, and potential warfare in the Middle East, the U.S. needs to limit its dependence on foreign oil, especially from the Middle East, shifting to other sources of supply and eventually to new types of energy sources.
April 03, 2006
Kadima's Victory and U.S. Policy on the Arab-Israeli Conflict
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1027)
Ehud Olmert's Kadima (Forward) party won less than one-quarter of the available Knesset seats (29 out of 120) in the Israeli parliamentary elections held March 28. A plurality of voters seems to favor unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and left-leaning economic policies.
March 31, 2006
Russian Spying for Saddam Demands a Careful U.S. Response
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1023)
On March 25, the Pentagon reported that Russia had given Saddam Hussein intelligence about U.S. military plans for the invasion of Iraq back in the spring of 2003.
March 31, 2006
Preventing a Russian-Georgian Military Confrontation
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1024)
The pending appeal of Eduard Kokoity, leader of the secessionist territory of South Ossetia, to the Russian Federation's Constitutional Court to allow his territory to join Mother Russia could trigger destabilization in the Caucasus, sparking a Russian-Georgian military confrontation and unpredictable consequences for the region and the world.
March 16, 2006
Flawed Presidential Elections in Belarus: How the West Should Respond
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1016)
The U.S. and EU should take steps to strengthen the Belarusian opposition and prod the Lukashenko regime to change course.
March 06, 2006
U.S. Should Warn Russia Over Its "Soviet" Middle East Policy
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1007)
Russia breaks with the West in a big way.
February 01, 2006
State of the Union 2006: Democracy in the Middle East
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #983)
Democracy is about more than just winning elections.
January 09, 2006
NATO's Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and the Greater Middle East
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #919)
NATO has reached a watershed and needs to evaluate both its geographic scope and the spectrum of threats it is willing to address. The Alliance needs to view its capabilities with clarity and sobriety and to approach future missions with realism, both military and economic. With the survival of our civilization at stake, failure is not an option.
January 04, 2006
Russia's Gas Attack on Ukraine: An Uneasy Truce
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #954)
Moscow's attempt to deal a decisive blow to President Victor Yushchenko.
2005 Research
October 25, 2005
Increasing the Global Transportation Fuel Supply
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #986)
An unabated and sharp hike in oil prices in the future could cause a global recession, as has happened twice in the past. To avoid a massive crisis, the U.S. government therefore needs to develop a comprehensive strategy to change the oil investment climate overseas; build more tankers, pipelines, and refineries; and remove tariffs on imported ethanol.
October 24, 2005
Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a Collision Course?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #901)
U.S. support for small countries or "multi-color" revolutions on the Russian periphery may be important, but it should not dictate U.S. grand strategy, which is defined by national interests. At the end of the day, we cannot support our friends by derailing our relations with Moscow. Nor should we shy away from the important task of promoting democracy worldwide.
September 30, 2005
Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1883)
The balance of power in Eurasia may be changing, and not in favor of the United States. Today, Moscow and Beijing share a belief in diluting American global supremacy and opposing the U.S. rhetoric of freedom and democracy. Washington needs to formulate a clear strategy to preserve U.S. influence in the region, develop energy resources, cultivate democratic reforms, and oppose authoritarianism.
August 18, 2005
Uzbekistan's Eviction Notice: What Next?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #978)
The U.S. should expand military, intelligence, and law enforcement cooperation with the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; secure regional access for military activities and negotiate overflight rights with Uzbekistan; and reach out to a broad range of political forces and individuals in Uzbekistan.
July 14, 2005
Time to Relaunch Ukraine's Economic Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1869)
Relaunching the effort to put Ukraine on the road to economic reform, increased domestic and foreign investment, and prosperity will require bold leadership, commitment to economic freedom, and qualitative improvement in the rule of law and protection of property rights. If done right, U.S.-Ukrainian cooperation on economic policy will greatly benefit the peoples of both countries.
June 29, 2005
Bush at Fort Bragg: A Steadfast Course to Victory
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #780)
The next steps in the long war.
June 27, 2005
Congress Should Lift OPEC's Immunity
By Ariel Cohen and William L.T. Schirano
(WebMemo #777)
A first step towards a free market in oil production.
June 14, 2005
No Good Reason To Close Gitmo
By Jack Spencer, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Jim Phillips, and Alane Kochems
(WebMemo #763)
Why those who would close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay are wrong.
June 02, 2005
The Khodorkovsky Verdict: A Setback for U.S.-Russian Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #753)
The consequences of the YUKOS Affair are just beginning to sink in.
May 20, 2005
Preventing a Nightmare Scenario: Terrorist Attacks Using Russian Nuclear Weapons and Materials
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1854)
During the Cold War, NATO and the Warsaw Pact were led by strong nation-states with strong chains of command. Today's multiple terrorist players are driven by ideology, religious interpretation, and language that many Americans do not comprehend; America and its allies have no alternative but to combat them while preventing them from obtaining and using weapons of mass destruction.
May 13, 2005
The Uzbekistan Dilemma
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #744)
An Islamist uprising could throw the region into turmoil.
May 04, 2005
President Bush's Messages to the Baltic States, Russia, and Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #736)
A challenging agenda on this trip.
April 08, 2005
The ADVANCE Democracy Act: A Dose of Realism Needed
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Helle C. Dale
(Executive Memorandum #968)
The promotion of democracy remains an important U.S. foreign policy goal, but the ADVANCE Democracy Act could hinder it. The U.S. should continue its tradition of aiding burgeoning democracies, but in a way that also takes into account U.S. vital interests, especially national security, and does not limit the executive branch's ability to conduct foreign policy.
April 01, 2005
After Maskhadov: Islamist Terrorism Threatens North Caucasus and Russia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1838)
The death of former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov may be Vladimir Putin's short-term gain, but it is Russia's long-term loss. Moscow will now confront the deadly face of Islamic extremist terrorism. Washington should cooperate selectively with Russia in tracking and intercepting terrorists' financial flows, technical expertise, and training capabilities.
March 24, 2005
Helping Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Revolution
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #701)
How to spread democracy and avoid bloodshed in Kyrgyzstan.
February 28, 2005
Russian Oil After YUKOS: Implications for the United States
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #961)
America needs to push for energy cooperation at the highest level, first at the Bush–Putin Summits in Bratislava and Moscow and then at the G–7/G–8 Summit in Scotland. This means, among other things, a framework agreement and conditioning Russian entry into the WTO on the creation of transparent rules and investment protection for U.S. companies that invest in Russia.
February 20, 2005
Putin's Crisis: Dealing with Russia's Political Upheaval
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #671)
Maintaining a working relationship with Russia while supporting long-term goals will not be easy.
January 27, 2005
Getting Ukraine to Safe Shores
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #956)
To help make Ukraine's transition to democracy a success, the Bush Administration should facilitate Ukraine's membership in the World Trade Organization and European Union, lift Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions, expand NATO's cooperation with Kyiv, offer a bridging loan for economic restructuring, and state unequivocally that the U.S. will not tolerate threats to Ukraine's territorial integrity.
2004 Research
November 12, 2004
The Lessons of Ukraine: Russia's Growing Influence in Eurasia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #949)
The muted U.S. responses to recent power shifts in Ukraine and Belarus demonstrate that the U.S. is unwilling to challenge Moscow's growing influence. The U.S. should support Ukrainian groups that are committed to democracy, support sovereignty and territorial integrity of all post-Soviet states, and expand high-level diplomatic dialogue with Moscow about contentious issues.
October 25, 2004
U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation After Beslan
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1809)
As Vladimir Putin moves Russia toward greater centralization, the U.S. should encourage democracy, political pluralism, and media freedoms in Russia; discourage Russia from becoming more authoritarian and expansionist; support the independence and territorial integrity of Russia's weaker neighbors; and avoid unnecessary confrontation with Moscow while shoring up and expanding U.S.-Russian cooperation in the global war on terrorism.
October 15, 2004
The U.S. Should Oppose Dictatorship in Belarus
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #945)
Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenka thinks he is the permanent ruler of that country, but the people of Belarus deserve better. The executive branch and Congress need to do more to support democracy in Belarus.
August 12, 2004
Minimizing Mischief in Venezuela, Stabilizing the U.S. Oil Supply
By Stephen Johnson and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1787)
On August 15, Venezuelans will decide whether to retain or recall President Hugo Chávez, who has impoverished his citizens and turned the state oil industry into a political tool. The United States should support international scrutiny of Venezuela's referendum, diversify its sources of petroleum, and engage Latin America to help strengthen allies' nascent democratic institutions and market economies.
May 19, 2004
Addressing Nigeria's Economic Problems and the Islamist Terrorist Threat
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Brett D. Schaefer
(Executive Memorandum #933)
Ongoing assaults against Nigerian oil production, general political instability, economic mismanagement, and the threat of Islamist radicalism necessitate that the U.S. work with Nigeria to address these problems. This should be done by encouraging Nigeria to improve its economy, secure its oil, combat corruption, and enforce the rule of law.
May 04, 2004
After the Uzbekistan Terror Attacks: Don't Sanction, but Press for Democracy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #496)
Despite claims to the contrary from the human rights community, Washington should understand that poverty and repression are not the root causes of terrorism.
March 30, 2004
A Strategy to Democratize Belarus
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #826)
Belarus, like Ukraine and Moldova, has not fully completed its transition from the Soviet system to democratic capitalism. As the October 2004 parliamentary elections are a priority both for democratic forces in Belarus and for Western friends of Belarussian democracy, it is the duty of neighbors near and far to help Belarus complete the process and achieve democracy, security, and prosperity.
March 09, 2004
Recent Changes in Russia and Their Impact on U.S.-Russian Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Yevgeny Volk, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1734)
As President Vladimir Putin awaits re-election for a second term with no significant challenges, U.S.-Russian relations are in limbo. Nevertheless, there are ways by which the United States and Russia can restore their cooperation on the basis of pragmatism and the pursuit of compatible national interests, including enhancing each other's security, economic ties, democracy, and human rights.
March 04, 2004
Models and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1730)
Both the developed and developing worlds need a steady supply of oil, but abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability, and even armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
March 04, 2004
Executive Summary: Models and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1730)
Executive Summary: Both the developed and developing worlds need a steady supply of oil, but abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability, and even armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
February 26, 2004
Putin Sacks the Cabinet
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #434)
All the world knows who the next Russian President will be, but the real game in Moscow today is: who will Mr. Putin appoint as the next Prime Minister?
January 12, 2004
America's Georgian Challenge
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #910)
Because the success of the new government of Georgia is important to the security and prosperity of the South Caucasus and Eurasia, the U.S. should encourage economic reform, institution building, and anti-corruption measures; foster the Georgian government's contacts with the separatist leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; and maintain a dialogue with Moscow on Georgia's territorial reintegration.
2003 Research
December 12, 2003
Russian Duma Elections: How the U.S. Should Respond to "Controlled Democracy"
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #908)
As a result of its recent parliamentary elections, Russia will be more difficult diplomatically and less hospitable to foreign investment. President Vladimir Putin's judgment in using his new parliamentary support and popularity will define both his relationship with the West and his place in history, and his resistance to the virulent nationalism and populist socialism of his party's hangers-on will make the difference between Russia's progress and failure.
December 12, 2003
Russian Duma Elections
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #908)
Russia now has a Duma that is more nationalist and less democratic. While emerging democracy is often a two-steps-forward, one-step-back proposition, it is in everyone's interest that Russia pursue civic society, free markets, and political liberty. The U.S. and the West should not hesitate to remind Moscow of this.
November 26, 2003
U.S. Should Support Georgian Democracy and Independence
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #376)
The U.S. should acknowledge the historic role Eduard Shevardnadze played in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, while supporting the new Georgian democratic leadership.
November 14, 2003
Riyadh Attack Threatens U.S. Energy Security
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #368)
Al Qaeda's massive attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on November 8, killed 17 and wounded over 120. This attack, the second since May, and the closure of the U.S. Embassy, have targeted the Saudi royal family and foreign presence in the kingdom, which makes the oil economy tick. It also gave a boost to the ultimate goal of Usama bin Laden to drive the "infidels" from the Land of Two Mosques and topple the monarchy. As the result, Western oil supply is at risk.
November 07, 2003
The YUKOS Affair: Protecting Democracy, Private Property, and the Rule of Law
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #906)
With the attack on YUKOS, the ex-KGB faction in the Kremlin has reverted to state-led repression against private capital and independent power centers. A crackdown on the independent media has been going on for three years. The U.S. should send a strong signal to President Vladimir Putin that such policies may cost Moscow America's good will and cause damage in tens of billions of dollars.
October 29, 2003
Radical Islam and U.S. Interests in Central Asia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Testimony #9999)
U.S. power projection on a global scale due to the war on terrorism raises new issues, especially with regards to the attitude of regional powers, elites, and population, toward the American presence.
October 16, 2003
U.S. Should Promote WTO as Substitute to Eurasian Common Economic Space
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #349)
Russia's agreement to create a Common Economic Space with Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan is an attempt at integration amongst countries that comprise 90 percent of Russia's trade with the Commonwealth of Independent States. U.S. officials have grounds for concern, as they would like to prevent the emergence of a new Russian-dominate entity in Eurasia.
October 01, 2003
Restarting the Flow: Restoring Iraqi Oil Production
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1693)
Without Iraqi oil, the U.S. taxpayer will have to foot the bill for the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq, U.S. consumers will pay higher prices at the pump, and both the U.S. and global economies will endure an indirect tax by paying higher energy prices. The alternative to restoring Iraqi oil production (misery for the Iraqi people and victory for the terrorists) is not an option.
September 19, 2003
The Bush-Putin Summit Agenda: Russian Peacekeepers for Iraq?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #901)
At the September 25-27 Camp David summit, Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin should put recent U.S.-Russian differences over the Iraq war behind them and close ranks on rebuilding Iraq and defeating al-Qaeda. President Bush should request Russian support for sending U.S.-led U.N. peacekeepers to Iraq, offer to expand Russian participation in the reconstruction of Iraq, and insist that Russia cooperate in blocking Iran's nuclear weapons program.
September 12, 2003
Saudi-Russian Rapprochement: U.S. Should Beware
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #336)
The Bush Administration needs to monitor a new geopolitical shift that is taking place following the visit of de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah to Russia on September 1-2. Moscow and Riyadh, old rivals, now claim to have found a common agenda, which spans oil, terrorism, and arms sales.
August 06, 2003
Aliev Dynasty or Azerbaijiani Democracy? Securing A Democratic Transition
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #324)
U.S. priorities in Azerbaijan include strengthening the Western orientation of Azerbaijan's foreign and domestic policy, including the preservation of a secular state. A democratic transition, if successful and bloodless, would serve as an important example to South Caucasus and Central Asian states, which suffer from a democracy deficit.
June 18, 2003
Securing the Democratic Transition in Azerbaijan
By Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #886)
The United States has been involved in Azerbaijan since the collapse of the Soviet Union and has much at stake. The U.S. should protect its interests while encouraging a democratic succession in Azerbaijan. The post-Aliev transition will not just set precedents for Azerbaijan, but will have greater geopolitical and geo-economic repercussions throughout the region. The next leader should enjoy democratic legitimacy based on a transparent and constitutional transition.
May 30, 2003
Hizb ut-Tahrir: An Emerging Threat to U.S. Interests in Central Asia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1656)
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Party of Liberation) is transnational, extremely anti-American, and could launch terrorist attacks against U.S. targets and allies, either alone or in cooperation with other global terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. A Hizb takeover of any Central Asian state could provide the radical Islamist movement with a geographic base and access to the expertise and technology to manufacture weapons of mass destruction.
May 30, 2003
Hizb ut-Tahrir: An Emerging Threat to U.S. Interests in Central Asia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1656)
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Party of Liberation) is transnational, extremely anti-American, and could launch terrorist attacks against U.S. targets and allies, either alone or in cooperation with other global terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. A Hizb takeover of any Central Asian state could provide the radical Islamist movement with a geographic base and access to the expertise and technology to manufacture weapons of mass destruction.
April 01, 2003
U.S.-Russian Relations Threatened By Iraq Arms Sales
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #247)
US intelligence reported, Moscow, of the selling of sensitive military equipment to Saddam Hussien.
March 25, 2003
wm238: Turkey Shot Itself in the Foot
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #238)
wm238: Turkey Shot Itself in the Foot
March 25, 2003
Achieving Economic Reform and Growth in Iraq
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr., Ph.D.
(WebMemo #236)
The Bush Administration should help Iraqi opposition leaders to develop an economic reform package for their country.
March 14, 2003
A Private Russian Oil Pipeline
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #865)
The United States is considering diversifying its sources of oil away from politically unstable regions.
March 05, 2003
bg1633 Executive Summary: The Road to Economic Prosperity
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, and Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr., Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1633)
bg1633 Executive Summary: The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
March 05, 2003
The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, and Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr., Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1633)
Iraq's return to global markets would allow for a more abundant and stable energy supply, a higher cash flow for the Iraqi people, and numerous business opportunities for the region and the world.
March 03, 2003
Preventing a Crisis in U.S.-Russian Relations
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #863)
Russian nuclear exports, if unaddressed, could overshadow the current U.S.-North Korean nuclear weapons disagreement, derail U.S.-Russian relations, and destabilize the uneasy geopolitical equilibrium in Eurasia.
2002 Research
December 11, 2002
Moscow Hostage Crisis Demands Greater U.S.-Russia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #844)
The hostage crisis in Moscow by Chechen Islamist extremists raised concerns about the security of post-Soviet weapon stockpiles. The likelihood of an attack with massive civilian casualties or the use of WMDs in the Russian-Chechen conflict has grown significantly. The U.S. should bilaterally expand security cooperation with Russia.
November 15, 2002
Strategic Cooperation Key
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #839)
When Bush and Putin meet, the agenda should focus on the war against Iraq, the war on terrorism, North Korea's nuclear programs, Russia's proliferation of WMDs, and energy security. Bush should stress to Putin that both countries' security interests lie in global stability, access to energy resources, and economic growth.
October 10, 2002
U.S.-Russian Energy Cooperation Is Good Policy
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #836)
A concurrent resolution that calls for expanding energy cooperation with Russia would be an important first step on the road to U.S. energy security that would have the additional beneficial effect of undermining the power of OPEC to dictate supply and prices in the oil market.
September 25, 2002
The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr., Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1594)
A strategy of structural reform and comprehensive privatization in Iraq will prove beneficial for the industrial world, the countries of the Middle East, and the developing world. The reforms could serve as a model for privatizations by other OPEC members, thereby weakening the cartel's domination of the energy markets.
September 25, 2002
bg1594es: The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr.
(Executive Summary #1594es)
bg1594es: The Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
September 10, 2002
Europe-Russia-America
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #151)
In the 21st century, it's as about geo-economics as about geopolitics. But it also about our common struggle against a dangerous and lethal enemy. We are all in it together. We are either going to hang together, or we are going to hang separately.
September 05, 2002
bg1582es: Iran's Claims Over Caspian Sea Resources Threaten Energy Security
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Summary #1582)
bg1582es: Iran's Claims Over Caspian Sea Resources Threaten Energy Security
May 22, 2002
Russia's accession to the WTO is in America's interests
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1551)
President Bush should publicly support Russia's accession to the WTO by 2003 or 2004, provided its negotiations with the WTO in all sectors have been completed successfully. Russia's accession will facilitate political and economic reforms and promote cooperation with the United States and its allies in the war against terrorism.
May 22, 2002
BG1551ES: Russia's accession to the WTO is in America's interests
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1551)
BG1551ES: Why Russia's Accession to the WTO Is in America's Economic and Strategic Interests
May 14, 2002
U.S.-Russia Summit Priorities
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Baker Spring
(Backgrounder #1549)
When President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for summits in Russia and Rome later this month, they will have an opportunity to define a new framework for U.S.-Russia strategic relations that extends beyond the war on terrorism.
April 29, 2002
Bringing Russia into an Anti-Saddam Coalition
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #812)
U.S.-Russian cooperation on a regime change in Iraq should be mutually beneficial. Helping Putin secure Russia's economic interests in Iraq would weaken domestic criticism of his support for President Bush's Iraq policy.
2001 Research
November 07, 2001
Strategic Defense and Cooperation Must Top the Agenda
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and Baker Spring
(Backgrounder #1501)
The Crawford summit will be as important to international security as the historic conferences between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev were to the end of the Cold War. This summit should open avenues to wartime cooperation against terrorism and Russia's integration into the West.
November 07, 2001
BG1501es: Strategic Defense and Cooperation
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Baker Spring
(Executive Summary #1501)
BG1501es: Strategic Defense and Cooperation Must Top the Agenda at the Bush-Putin Summit in Texas
July 18, 2001
The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1459)
The signing of the Russia-China Treaty of Friendship this week portends the establishment of a strategic partnership that could influence the future of Eurasia and East Asia for decades to come.
July 18, 2001
U.S. Foreign Policy Interests/Human Rights in Central Asia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Testimony #9999)
Today, with Russia and China attempting to play the leading role in the region, the chances of Central Asia embracing democracy remain slim. However, the United States should continue to uphold the ideas of freedom of speech, free media, freedom of religion, and the rule of law.
June 11, 2001
An Agenda for the Bush-Putin Summit in Slovenia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1447)
President Bush's agenda for the Ljubljana summit with President Putin must be based on a clear grasp of prior policy failures as well as a clear understanding of U.S. national security interests.
May 02, 2001
Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests under Threat
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Testimony #9999)
The political and economic independence of Ukraine and its political orientation are likely to define the security environment in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe for decades to come. The Ukrainian question is quickly becoming an early and complex foreign policy challenge facing the new Bush Administration.
April 05, 2001
Countering Russian-Iranian Military Cooperation
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and James A. Phillips
(Backgrounder #1425)
Russian assistance to Iran in developing ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction increasingly threatens U.S. interests, U.S. forces, and U.S. allies in the Middle East.
March 16, 2001
Crisis in Ukraine
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #730)
Ukraine's fate hinges upon energy independence, debt management, economic efficiency, and private-sector transparency.The Bush Administration must move quickly and decisively to manage this challenging and complex question.
January 18, 2001
BG1406es: Putin's Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russian Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1406es)
BG1406es: Putin's Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russian Relations
January 18, 2001
Putin's Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russian Relations
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1406)
Putin's Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russian Relations
2000 Research
October 20, 2000
Putin's Russia: How Should the U.S. Respond?
By Richard Haass, Sarah E. Mendelson, Dov Zakheim, Yurii Shchekochikhin, Representative Curt Weldon, Dimitri Simes, and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #690)
Putin's Russia: How Should the U.S. Respond?
June 01, 2000
Putin's Cabinet Makes Russian Reforms Less Likely
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #675)
Summit Rhetoric Aside, Putin's Cabinet Makes Russian Reforms Less Likely
March 28, 2000
The Rise of Putin: What It Means for the Future of Russia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1353)
The Rise of Putin: What It Means for the Future of Russia
1999 Research
November 30, 1999
The War in Chechnya: What Is At Stake?
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1339)
This second Russo-Chechen war has escalated to a point where the West must act to curtail the carnage.
October 21, 1999
Prevent Loans to Corrupt Governments
By Brett D. Schaefer and Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #629)
Members of Congress are rightly outraged over evidence that Russian officials have misused and diverted IMF loans.
September 22, 1999
Russian Money Laundering: Questions Congress Should Ask
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1323)
U.S. and British law enforcement and national security agencies are undertaking a massive investigation of money laundering and diversion of international financial assistance.
July 28, 1999
The Baltic Quest for Security: Euro-Atlantic Integration
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, His Excellency Dr. Valdis Birkavs, His Excellency Toomas Hendrik Ilves, and His Excellency Algirdas Saudargas
(Heritage Lecture #641)
The rebirth of Baltic independence in the wake of the Soviet collapse is one of the miracles of our time.
July 26, 1999
An Opportunity to Improve U.S.-Russia Relations
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1314)
Primakov had opposed, frequently and openly, the United States on many issues.
June 18, 1999
BG1296ES: What Russia Must Do to Recover from its Economic Crisis
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Summary #1296)
BG1296ES: What Russia Must Do to Recover from its Economic Crisis
June 18, 1999
What Russia Must Do to Recover from its Economic Crisis
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1296)
The economic reforms attempted under Yeltsin between 1992 and 1998 were poorly planned, ineptly executed, and plagued with corruption.
May 18, 1999
Reasons to Oppose New IMF Credits to Russia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #597)
Amid deteriorating relations between the United States and Russia, the IMF Managing Director and Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister announced a preliminary agreement to lend Russia $4.5 billion.
March 24, 1999
Primakov's Visit: Not the Time for More IMF Credits
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #581)
On March 23, 1999, Russian Prime Minister Evgeny Primakov visits Washington, D.C., for a summit with Vice President Al Gore.
March 17, 1999
U.S. Interests in Central Asia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Testimony #9999)
American policymakers have at times failed to appreciate the complexity of Central Asia.
February 17, 1999
The Watershed in U.S.-Russia Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1252)
Russia is both politically and economically unstable, and contributes more to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction than at any point since 1992.
February 17, 1999
bg1252es: The Watershed in U.S.-Russia Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1252es)
bg1252es: The Watershed in U.S.-Russia Relations: Beyond "Strategic" Partnership
January 08, 1999
Who Lost Russia?
By Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D., Hon. Caspar W. Weinberger, Hon. R. James Woolsey, and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #629)
There is plenty of blame to go around for Russia's troubles, and most of it, in my opinion, lies with Russia.
1998 Research
October 27, 1998
The Meaning of the Russian IMF Bailout
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, Marshall I. Goldman, John P. Hardt, and Roger W. Robinson, Jr.
(Heritage Lecture #626)
The Meaning of the Russian IMF Bailout
October 23, 1998
Russia's Meltdown: Anatomy
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1228)
Russia's Meltdown: Anatomy of the IMF Failure
September 25, 1998
BG1222es: Ethnic Interests Threaten U.S. Interests
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Summary #1222)
BG1222es: Ethnic Interests Threaten U.S. Interests in the Caucasus
September 25, 1998
Ethnic Interests Threaten U.S. Interests in the Caucus
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1222)
Ethnic Interests Threaten U.S. Interests in the Caucus
August 26, 1998
U.S.-Russian Relations at the Moscow Summit
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1217)
U.S.-Russian Relations at the Moscow Summit: Time to Face Reality
August 24, 1998
The IMF's $22.6 Billion Failure in Russia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.,and Brett D. Schaefer
(Executive Memorandum #548)
The IMF's $22.6 Billion Failure in Russia
June 10, 1998
Russia Needs Immediate Reform
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and Brett D. Schaefer
(Executive Memorandum #533)
Russia Needs Immediate Reform, Not More IMF Loans
April 06, 1998
Yeltsin's Gambit: Political Crisis in Moscow
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Evgueni Volk, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #522)
Yeltsin's Gambit: Political Crisis in Moscow
April 06, 1998
The State of Russian Foreign Policy
By Stephen Blank, Ariel Cohen, Paula J. Dobriansky,Mark Gage, Robert O. Freedman, Stephen Sestanovich, and Angela Stent
(Heritage Lecture #607)
The State of Russian Foreign Policy and U.S. Policy Toward Russia
February 26, 1998
NATO Enlargement is No Threat
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #510)
NATO Enlargement is no threat to US-Russian Relations
1997 Research
November 13, 1997
Russia's Dangerous Missile Game
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and James A. Phillips
(Executive Memorandum #503)
Russia's Dangerous Missile Game in Iran
September 12, 1997
BG1137: Russia's Assault on Religious Freedom
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1137)
BG1137: Russia's Assault on Religious Freedom
July 24, 1997
BG1132
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1132)
BG1132: U.S. Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Building A New "Silk Road" to Economic Prosperity
May 28, 1997
EM481: Russia's Borrowing Spree
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #481)
EM481: Russia's Borrowing Spree: A Looming Financial Crisis
April 21, 1997
EM476: Russia's Union With Belarus
By Dr. Ariel Cohen and Evgueni Volk, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #476)
EM476: Russia's Union With Belarus: Expensive and Troubling
March 14, 1997
EM470: At U.S.-Russian Summit, Stand Firm
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #470)
EM470: At U.S.-Russian Summit, Stand Firm on NATO Enlargement
March 06, 1997
BG1105: A New Paradigm for U.S.-Russia Relations
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1105)
Bg1105: A New Paradigm for U.S.-Russia Relations: Facing the Post-Cold War Reality
1996 Research
December 12, 1996
HL578: The Future of the Russian Military
By Dr. Ariel Cohen, Sherman Garnett, Ph.D., Professor Stephen Blank, Jacob W. Kipp, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #578)
HL578: The Future of the Russian Military: Managing Geopolitical Change and Institutional Decline
October 23, 1996
EM465: Lebed Dismissed But Not Tamed
By Evgueni Volk, Ph.D. and Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #465)
EM465: Lebed Dismissed But Not Tamed
August 13, 1996
EM457: The Succession Struggle
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #457)
EM457: The Succession Struggle Begins in Russia
June 24, 1996
EM454: The Russian Elections
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #454)
EM454: The Russian Elections: A Glimmer of Hope For Reform
February 16, 1996
EM447: No IMF Loans To Russia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Economic Freedom Project Report #447)
EM447: No IMF Loans To Russia
January 25, 1996
BG1065: The New "Great Game"
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1065)
BG1065: The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia
1995 Research
December 29, 1995
EM443: The Duma Elections:
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #443)
EM443: The Duma Elections: Russian Reformers Beware
October 23, 1995
EM435: Messages Clinton Should Deliver
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Executive Memorandum #435)
EM435: Messages Clinton Should Deliver At The U.S.-Russian Summit
June 22, 1995
BG1041: The Purposes of Russian Aid
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1041)
BG1041: The Purposes of Russian Aid: Supporting Democratic Capitalism
2009 Commentary
October 09, 2009
Blood Brothers No More?
By Ariel Cohen
Is President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia trying to come out from under the shadow of his long-time political mentor and former boss Prime Minister Vladimir Putin? So it would seem.
August 21, 2009
Authoritarian arms
By Ariel Cohen and Owen B. Graham
President Hugo Chavez recently announced that Venezuela will purchase dozens of Russian tanks and other arms, signaling growing military ties between the two countries -- and trouble ahead in the hemisphere.
July 06, 2009
The U.S. Agenda for the Obama-Medvedev Summit
By Ariel Cohen
On July 7, Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev will meet for their first full-fledged summit in Moscow. The two countries may have a window of opportunity to re-launch their relationship, which has been set back by Russia's intransigent positions and its litany of demands.
July 02, 2009
Russia's New Scramble for Africa
By Ariel Cohen
The Kremlin has launched an ambitious project to restore Moscow's past glory on the African continent. Policy makers in the U.S. and Europe need to understand that it's happening -- and formulate an effective response -- before they find their own relationships with Africa changing in significant and problematic ways.
June 17, 2009
Russian Paradox Forum
By Ariel Cohen
Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the Baltic Sea. The economic forecasts pushed by Russian leaders, foreign dignitaries and gurus were just as bleak.
June 09, 2009
Russia's commodities strategy: While the West talks, Medvedev and Putin lock up resources for the future
By Ariel Cohen
The economic glitterati have descended on Russia's "second capital." President Dmitry Medvedev, vice premiers and ministers, CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca-Cola and other Forbes 500 companies, and oligarchs are rubbing shoulders with superstar pundits such as Thomas L. Friedman and Nuriel Rubini. All have flocked to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
May 19, 2009
Peace undivided in Jerusalem?
By Ariel Cohen
Will the decades-long alliance between the United States and Israel fall victim to the Obama administration's naive quest for instant peace in the Middle East?
May 14, 2009
Obama puts Israel at risk
By Ariel Cohen
The world's leading experts who gathered at Columbia University's Harriman Institute for the conference, "The Architecture of Energy Export System of the Caucasus and Central Asia," believe that future uncertainties jeopardize western control of much of Eurasian energy.
May 01, 2009
Eurasian pipelines - a forecaster's nightmare
By Ariel Cohen
The world's leading experts who gathered at Columbia University's Harriman Institute for the conference, "The Architecture of Energy Export System of the Caucasus and Central Asia," believe that future uncertainties jeopardize western control of much of Eurasian energy.
April 30, 2009
Kudrin's Anti-Crisis Plan
By Ariel Cohen
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin got a surprise gift on his recent visit to Washington -- a subpoena. The paper was served to him on April 24 as he entered the Peterson Institute for International Economics to deliver a speech. RTVi television, which belongs to former oligarch Vladimir Gusinsky, caught the action on film.
April 13, 2009
Turkey's dangerous shift
By Ariel Cohen
After attending three summits - of the Group of 20 richest countries, NATO and the European Union - President Obama ended his European trip in Turkey. His messages there highlight the importance Washington attaches to this regional player bridging Europe and Asia, a veteran NATO ally, and an influential Muslim country.
April 09, 2009
Iran has ICBM power
By Ariel Cohen
Iran marked the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution with a successful launch of its first indigenous satellite on Feb. 2. The Omid -- "Hope" in Farsi -- satellite was launched via the Iranian-produced satellite carrier Safir-2 -- translated as Ambassador-2.
April 06, 2009
Don't be naive about Russia's real aims
By Ariel Cohen
At this week's G-20 summit in London, President Obama met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the first time. The two men share the burden of improving much-frayed relations between their two nations.
April 02, 2009
Reversing habit of 'legal nihilism'
By Ariel Cohen
President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will meet Wednesday on the sidelines at the Group of 20 summit. Ironically, that's one day after the trial of former Russian oilman Mikhail Khodorkovsky opens in Moscow. This trial symbolizes the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia.
March 24, 2009
Beware of Russians bearing gifts
By Ariel Cohen
While the White House is understandably preoccupied with Russian policy, it should balance it with boosting missile defenses, engagement with America's European allies, and ongoing involvement in Eurasian and Caspian affairs
March 21, 2009
Iran now on the brink of making the bomb
By Ariel Cohen
While the White House is understandably preoccupied with Russian policy, it should balance it with boosting missile defenses, engagement with America's European allies, and ongoing involvement in Eurasian and Caspian affairs
February 26, 2009
Don't push the reset button yet
By Ariel Cohen
Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference on Feb. 7 that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia. But the Obama administration shouldn't allow Moscow to pocket gains it has recently made in Eurasia. A "carrots-and-flowers" approach to the Kremlin won't work.
February 12, 2009
Swords and Shields: Russian nuke cuts
By Ariel Cohen
The Obama administration plans to negotiate an unprecedented strategic nuclear arms reduction initiative with Moscow. The drastic proposal, greeted by Russia, may result in cutting the American and Russian nuclear stockpiles by some 80 percent to 1,000 warheads each.
February 12, 2009
Swords and Shields: Why Manas matters
By Ariel Cohen
Wanted: a large airport in Central Asia, preferably a former Soviet air base. With the clock ticking for the United States to close Manas Air Base in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the Pentagon is scrambling to find an alternative.
February 04, 2009
Swords and Shields: Russia's Abkhaz base plan
By Ariel Cohen
Russia plans to establish a Black Sea naval base at the Abkhaz port of Ochamchire.
Ochamchire is some 60 kilometers southeast of the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi, near the cease-fire line with Georgia. If permanently stationed there, Russian ships essentially would control the Georgian territorial waters all the way to the Turkish border.
The Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi would be well within striking distance of a base in Ochamchire, giving Russia a strong advantage in any future regional conflict.
January 21, 2009
Swords and Shields: Russia bets on PAK FA
By Ariel Cohen
Moscow continues to pursue a Sukhoi-based fifth-generation fighter. After five years of effort, Russia finally found an international partner for the development project. In 2007 India entered an agreement to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi.
January 20, 2009
The Real World: Gaza's Five Rings of Fire
By Ariel Cohen
To understand the Gaza war, one needs to examine the five concentric 'rings of fire' Gaza presents: intra-Palestinian; Israeli-Palestinian; the Arab world; Iran; and the West, including the United States. One also needs to keep in mind that - with the exception of Iran, jihadists, international organizations and some leftist NGOs - no one wants a Hamas victory.
January 14, 2009
Russia's gas war
By Ariel Cohen
Despite feverish negotiations with participation of the European Union, Russia and Ukraine failed to agree on resolution of the gas dispute between them. Mutual disdain escalated haggling and acrimony between leaders in Moscow and Kiev to hysterical pitch.
January 10, 2009
Turkey's Foreign Policy Plans in 2009
By Ariel Cohen
In 2009, expect to see a more active Turkey. It's planning to boost its foreign policy involvement in the Caucasus, Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean, senior Turkish diplomats tell TREND. This shows that Turkey is recognizing mega-trends, such as the diminishing U.S. role in Iraq, growing Russian aspirations in South Caucasus, and the forthcoming showdown over the Iranian nuclear program. Ankara will be playing an important role in all these developments, trying to secure its interests north, south, east and west.
January 09, 2009
Swords and Shields: Boosting Venezuela
By Ariel Cohen
Russia held joint naval exercises with Venezuela late last year to demonstrate its growing strategic reach and political clout, particularly in Latin America, which many consider the traditional U.S. sphere of influence.
Provocative? Yes. But Washington and Moscow have restrained the verbal squabbling. Many observers take that as a sign that both sides hope for improved bilateral relations under the new Obama administration.
2008 Commentary
September 15, 2008
Dealing with Russia
By Ariel Cohen
On Aug. 8, Russia decided to rewrite the rules of post-World War II European security. It repudiated the Helsinki Pact of 1975, which recognized the sanctity of borders in Europe, and violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of NATO aspirant Georgia, whose troops had attacked South Ossetia the day before. In the process, Russia also tore up its own peacekeeping mandate in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
August 07, 2008
Solzhenitsyn's legacy
By Ariel Cohen
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, who died Sunday of heart failure at age 89, was a titan in Russian literature and politics of the 20th century. He survived the Stalinist purges, World War II, eight years in the gulag, a successful battle with cancer, and communist denunciation. After spending 18 years exiled in America, he made a triumphant return to his homeland in 1994.
July 31, 2008
Middle East going MAD?
By Ariel Cohen
The forthcoming Russian anti-aircraft system in Iran may precipitate an early Israeli strike - or promote the posture of mutually assured destruction (MAD) between Israel and Iran. Both options look bad.
July 12, 2008
The Real World: Between Iran and Poland
By Ariel Cohen
The recent Iranian missile tests demonstrate the need to deploy a missile defense capable of mid-flight interception of Iranian warheads, which in a few years may be able to reach Europe and the United States.
June 21, 2008
THE REAL WORLD: The Oil Crisis - Desperate Measures
By Ariel Cohen
U.S. President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain have called for an expansion of U.S. domestic oil drilling to Alaska, federal lands and the Outlying Continental Shelf (OCS) off the U.S. East and West coasts. This could not be more timely, if only it was realistic.
June 07, 2008
The Real World: Iran and U.S. elections
By Ariel Cohen
Iran is emerging as a key issue in the U.S. 2008 presidential campaign. In his speech to the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee – AIPAC – Democratic Sen. Barack Obama pushed all the right buttons, from keeping Jerusalem united as the capital of Israel, to calling for resurrection of the Jewish-African-American coalition from the 1960s
June 04, 2008
Big Money, Big Oil, Big Risk
By Ariel Cohen
Azerbaijan benefits greatly from the rising oil prices so far. Oil at over 125 dollars a barrel brings windfall profits to the country and allows social and economic development unlike anything people remember in the recent decades.
May 31, 2008
The Real World: Oil & shifting geopolitics
By Ariel Cohen
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry (Hank) Paulson is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, to ask the oil producers to pump more oil to get gasoline prices down. He will also ask their Sovereign Wealth Funds, the ships of the line and aircraft carriers of the 21st century geo-economics, to pump more cash into the ailing U.S. banking system, which is already suffering in the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis.
May 24, 2008
Runaway Oil
By Ariel Cohen
Many oil producing countries benefit greatly from the rising oil prices. Oil at $135 a barrel brings them windfall profits and allows social and economic development unlike anything people can remember.
April 18, 2008
The Real World: Putin in Libya
By Ariel Cohen
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to Libya on April 16, the first by a Russian president to the formerly shunned country. The event was hailed by Libya's veteran leader Moammar Gadhafi as "historic, strategic and very important." Gadhafi further stated "…given that we are both producers of gas and oil, we will work together to defend our interests."
April 11, 2008
The Real World: Iran – N.Korea with oil?
By Ariel Cohen
Amid chilling rhetoric reminiscent of Europe of the 1930s, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised to give the West a "bloody nose" and "smash it on the mouth."
The threats came as Ahmadinejad announced that an additional 6,000 centrifuges will be deployed in clusters called "cascades" in the nuclear research city of Natanz. These will be in addition to the existing 3,000 Pakistan-designed centrifuges already there.
March 29, 2008
The Real World: OPEC, Master of Universe
By Ariel Cohen
Skyrocketing gasoline prices may be pushing the U.S. economy over the edge, but the oil-rich lords of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel don't give a hoot.
March 08, 2008
Prize in Eurasian Game
By Ariel Cohen
The Russian presidential election in which Dmitry Medvedev — Vladimir Putin's choice as his successor — was confirmed by the vast majority of Russian voters last Sunday, has serious geopolitical implications for the United States. Moscow has already demonstrated that there is going to be more business as usual: Anti-Medvedev demonstrators in Moscow were beaten up and arrested, and gas supplies to Ukraine several interrupted.
March 07, 2008
The Real World: From Sderot to Jerusalem
By Ariel Cohen
The terrorist who attacked Merkaz HaRav Yeshiva at around 8:30 Thursday night, murdered eight religious students and wounded at least 10, sent a message to U.S. President George W. Bush and to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who just left Israel. The bodies of the dead Jewish students spell: You are not going to get peace anytime soon.
March 01, 2008
Management Reshuffle?
By Ariel Cohen
Last December Russian President Vladimir Putin chose Dmitry Medvedev, a first deputy prime minister, to succeed him in the country's presidency. March 2 presidential elections are anti-climactic, as they are going to ratify this choice, and as Mr. Medvedev is the only candidate likely to win.
February 16, 2008
The Real World: U.S. Intel on Russia, Iran
By Ariel Cohen
What does the U.S. intelligence community really know about the Russian-Iranian axis? On Feb. 5, John Michael McConnell, Director of National Intelligence presented his Annual Threat Assessment to the U.S. Senate Committee on Intelligence, which provided some insights.
February 16, 2008
Russia's deja vu parade
By Ariel Cohen
As Yogi Berra once said, "This is deja vu all over again." On May 9, heavy military equipment will once again roll down Moscow's Red Square for the Victory Day military parade. Tanks, missiles, and 6,000 troops will be joined overhead by fighter aircraft and military helicopters. The last time Moscow saw such a display of military hardware was November 1990, before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
February 09, 2008
The Real World: Iran's Space Rocket Launch
By Ariel Cohen
On Feb. 5, just a few days before the 29th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered the launch of a ballistic rocket described as a "space launch vehicle," or SLV. The single-stage rocket, called the Explorer-1, was launched from a new and secret space center in northern Iran that was inaugurated that day.
February 02, 2008
The Real World: Olmert's Reprieve
By Ariel Cohen
Amid a rare Jerusalem snowstorm the Winograd Commission, named after its chairman, retired Tel-Aviv district court president judge Eliyahu Winograd, has finally publicized its much-expected final report about the performance of the Israeli government and armed services during the war with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006.
January 26, 2008
The Real World: Big powers, limp sanctions
By Ariel Cohen
A mountain of diplomacy has given birth to a molehill of sanctions. Аfter months of negotiations, the troika (United States, China and Russia), as well as the EU-3, (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) approved a draft U.N. Security Council resolution which will fail to introduce new significant sanctions against Iran over its uranium enrichment program.
January 19, 2008
Lieberman Exits Stage Right. Is Olmert Next?
By Ariel Cohen
Ehud Olmert's final hour as Prime Minister is getting a lot closer.
January 05, 2008
The Real World: Oil at $100
By Ariel Cohen
Is $100 oil a cause to celebrate? The answer is, yes -- in the short term, and no -- in the long term. The answer also depends on who you are and where you sit.
2007 Commentary
December 17, 2007
Medvedev's challenge
By Ariel Cohen
Dmitry Medvedev's endorsement as presidential candidate by four pro-Putin political parties and by Vladimir Putin himself ends months of guessing games. Mr. Medvedev's appeal to Mr. Putin to serve as prime minister not only confirms Mr. Putin will play a pivotal role in Russian politics after he steps down — it signals that Mr. Putin, not Mr. Medvedev, will remain the No. 1 politician in Russia for years to come.
December 15, 2007
Тhe Real World: Global energy transformed
By Ariel Cohen
The world is on the eve of a new energy order that is going to change the way that Middle Eastern suppliers and consumers around the world do their business. This is not the opinion of a radical environmentalist or even of prominent ecological activist and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.
December 11, 2007
Making history
By Ariel Cohen
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran is unprecedented in the way it is likely to change U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic. Repercussions of the report go well beyond the Persian Gulf. They may influence U.S. relations with Russia and Europe and affect American standing in the world.
October 17, 2007
The failed Moscow talks
By Ariel Cohen
Last Friday and Saturday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Moscow. They met with President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov, for what are known as the "2 + 2 talks." These were agreed upon in Kennebunkport, Maine, between Presidents George W. Bush and Mr. Putin. The Moscow talks did not go well.
October 05, 2007
Ukraine's orange team returns
By Ariel Cohen
On Sunday, Ukrainians flocked to vote in the early parliamentary elections. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe found the votes free and fair despite fears of fraud.
September 14, 2007
Osama's crazy makeover
By Ariel Cohen
Osama bin Laden commemorated the sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attack with a surprising left-leaning rhetorical attack on America and the West, which was distributed to TV channels and on the Internet last Friday.
August 08, 2007
Russia's race for the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen
By planting the Russian flag on the seabed under the North Pole and claiming a sector of the Continental Shelf the size of Western Europe, Moscow generated a new source of international tension, seemingly out of the blue.
June 29, 2007
A somber summit
By Ariel Cohen
President Bush will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin July 1-2 at Kennebunkport, Maine. This may be the last opportunity to improve U.S.-Russian relations before the two leaders leave office in 2008-2009.
June 08, 2007
Pushing Putin
By Ariel Cohen
The meeting between Presidents Bush and Putin on the sidelines of the G-8 Summit in the Baltic Sea coastal resort of Heiligendamm is not going to be a happy event.
June 06, 2007
Lessons of the Six-Day War
By Ariel Cohen
Today the world will commemorate the 40th anniversary of Israel's victory in the Six-Day War. This was one of the most convincing conventional military accomplishments of the 20th century, one which removed the threat of annihilation from the Jewish States for the following four decades.
May 24, 2007
Kazakh political challenge
By Ariel Cohen
The Kazakh Parliament vote last week to allow President Nursultan Nazarbayev to run for a fourth presidential term, surprised Washington. The amendment is a part of a broader, largely positive constitutional reform.
May 05, 2007
Israeli inquiry aftershocks
By Ariel Cohen
The Winograd Commission, named after its chairman, retired Tel Aviv District Court judge Eliyahu Winograd, released a political bombshell this past Sunday -- its report on Israel's conduct of the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon last summer.
April 27, 2007
Russia's political roulette
By Ariel Cohen
Boris Yeltsin, who passed away April 23 at age 76, was an unlikely revolutionary. A successful member of the Soviet ruling class, he did his utmost to bring down the communist system. In the process he led the dismantlement of the Soviet Union, attempting to create, for the first time in Russia's 1,000-year history, a modern nation state. He almost succeeded.
April 21, 2007
Calamitous fissures
By Ariel Cohen
The constitutional crisis in Ukraine threatens the country's sovereignty, economic well-being, and American and Western geopolitical and business interests there. Tragically, Ukraine is amidst a tug-of-war between a truculent prime minister and an inept president, and between the divided executive, a chaotic and corrupt legislative and an unprofessional (and possibly corrupt) judiciary.
February 15, 2007
Confronting Putin's push
By Ariel Cohen
The cold shower Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on the United States at the international security conference in Munich should not have come as a surprise. After all, Mr. Putin himself and a host of other senior spokesmen, including his defense minister and one of the official heirs-apparent Sergey Ivanov and military Chief of Staff Gen. Yuri Baluevsky have said as much in the past.
January 17, 2007
Advancing American Interest in Central Asia
By Ariel Cohen
Turkmenistan is one of the keystones of Central Asian geopolitics, third in importance after Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The post-Turkmenbashi transition can be used by the United States (and the European Union) to open the doors of this reclusive nation for its reintegration into the region and the world, in turn, helping to strengthen the U.S. position in Central Asia.
2006 Commentary
December 01, 2006
Trail of sinister secrets
By Ariel Cohen
The Alexander Litvinenko murder by radiation in London is mysterious -- and important.
October 20, 2006
Georgia . . . on Russia's mind
By Ariel Cohen
Amid great power fretting over North Korea's nuclear test and continuing Iranian truculence against the West, Russia escalated its confrontation with the neighboring Georgia.
September 28, 2006
Eurasian tiger's visit
By Ariel Cohen
On Friday, President Bush will welcome Nursultan Nazarbaev, the leader of Kazakhstan, to the White House. Kazakhstan is the pivotal country in the heart of Eurasia, due to its vast mineral resources, a solid track record of economic growth, and geopolitical location between China and Russia.
August 11, 2006
Turkey: The best choice to lead a Lebanon force
By Gal Luft and Ariel Cohen
With the UN Security Council pondering a resolution to send an international force to stabilize southern Lebanon and disarm Hezbollah, it is time to tap into Turkey's large military power and exceptional geopolitical role in the eastern Mediterranean.
July 13, 2006
The Bush-Putin G-8 summit
By Ariel Cohen
The July 15 G-8 meeting and Bush-Putin summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, marks the most serious trial of U.S.-Russian relations since the Soviet Union collapsed. Mutually assured grievances have led some in Washington, Republicans and Democrats alike, to question whether President Bush should attend, and whether Russia should remain in the G-8.
June 14, 2006
Bear and Dragon summit
By Ariel Cohen
On Thursday, members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are gathering for their fifth annual meeting at the birthplace of the Eurasian bloc -- Shanghai. Since its modest economic beginnings, SCO has become a leading Eurasian economic and military bloc. Unfortunately, it is also increasingly anti-American.
March 31, 2006
Springtime is for War?
By Ariel Cohen
The pending appeal of the President of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity, to the Russian Federation's Constitutional Court may trigger a destabilizing chain of events in the Caucasus.
March 21, 2006
Minsk electoral miscarriage
By Ariel Cohen
On March 19, Belarus, the last dictatorship in Europe, held presidential elections. President Alexander Lukashenko claimed more than 80 percent of the vote after threatening to "wring necks to those who threaten a coup."
March 02, 2006
Russia's covetous courtship
By Ariel Cohen
March 6, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Washington to discuss the Middle East. March 3, a high-ranking delegation of Hamas will visit Moscow at President Vladimir Putin's invitation, to meet with Lavrov. A coincidence?
February 04, 2006
Bush's Hamas Challenge
By Ariel Cohen
In his State of the Union Address, President George W. Bush characterized radical Islam as "one of the main sources of reaction and opposition" to freedom. He went on to note that "the perversion by a few of a noble faith into an ideology of terror and death. Terrorists like bin Laden are serious about mass murder... They seek to impose a heartless system of totalitarian control throughout the Middle East, and arm themselves with weapons of mass murder." True. True.
January 06, 2006
Technology Is Amoral; People Are Another Story
By Ariel Cohen
The debate about anti-terrorism eavesdropping focuses public attention on the nexus between technology and politics and how the two affect our lives. The short answer is, power, including computing and telecom, can be a force for good -- or evil, depending on users and stakeholders.
2005 Commentary
November 30, 2005
Increasing the Global Fuel Supply
By Ariel Cohen
Gasoline prices may have stabilized -- for now -- but it's time to face an unpleasant reality: Demand for gasoline and kerosene is outstripping supply.
November 01, 2005
Azerbaijan intrigue
By Ariel Cohen
Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich republic on the western shores of the Caspian Sea, are scheduled for Nov. 6.
September 23, 2005
War Games: Russia, China Grow Alliance
By Ariel Cohen
In foreign policy it's critical to "know thine enemy." So American policymakers should be aware that Russia and China are inching closer to identifying a common enemy — the United States.
August 26, 2005
'Peace mission' against the U.S.?
By Ariel Cohen
The unprecedented Sino-Russian first joint military exercises on Aug. 18-25 have raised concerns in Washington. "The correlation of forces in Eurasia is shifting against the U.S.", says a senior State Department official.
August 18, 2005
Why Should OPEC be Immune from Lawsuits
By Ariel Cohen and William Schirano
It's a move that anyone outraged by high gasoline prices would applaud -- a non-profit labor group suing the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
June 16, 2005
Gitmo is No Gulag
By Ariel Cohen
Perhaps she was blinded by a hatred of U.S. policies. Maybe she was seeking to shift attention from terrorist crimes.
May 09, 2005
On the Road to Moscow
By Ariel Cohen
President George W. Bush's visit to Latvia, Russia and the Republic of Georgia underscores how much the geopolitical landscape changed 13 years after the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
April 13, 2005
Russia: Meet the New Boss
By Ariel Cohen
In Russia these days, a lot of old is new again. In fact, the Russian oil and gas sector's new paradigm can be summarized in two words: "state domination."
April 04, 2005
Bush Administration Welcomes the Kyrgyz Revolution
By Ariel Cohen
Kyrgyzstan's revolution is widely welcomed in Washington, and has some American policy planners contemplating the possibility of regime change in other Central Asian nations, especially Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
March 23, 2005
Running Out of Time in Kyrgyzstan
By Ariel Cohen
The sand in Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev's clock is running out. His secular opposition has taken over the south of the country, including the two largest cities of Osh and Jalalabad.
2004 Commentary
December 16, 2004
All Intifada, All the Time
By Ariel Cohen
While the West is basking in the tunes of Christmas carols, a different tune is being played by the two leading Jihadi TV channels, al Jazeera and al Manar.
November 24, 2004
Ukraine's Rape by Elections
By Ariel Cohen
As was expected for months, forces loyal to Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich of Ukraine attempted to steal presidential elections on Sunday.
August 05, 2004
Terror in Tashkent
By Ariel Cohen
Last Friday, three suicide bombers blew themselves up next two the U.S. and Israeli Embassies and Prosecutor General's Office in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
June 10, 2004
Achievements . . .
By Ariel Cohen
Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 with a mandate not just to contain communism, which was the U.S. policy since 1947, but to roll it back.
March 26, 2004
Targeted Killing...
By Ariel Cohen
As world leaders in Madrid grieve the deaths of more than 201 victims of the train bombing, and Israel takes flak from the Europeans for the targeted killing of Sheik Ahmed Yassin, three anti-terrorism models emerge.
January 15, 2004
Our Challenge in Georgia
By Ariel Cohen
If the new administration fails, Georgia likely will deteriorate to anarchy and armed conflict, which devastated the republic in the early 1990s. Such a scenario can be catastrophic to security and prosperity of the South Caucasus and Eurasia.
2003 Commentary
December 01, 2003
Turkey's Trial By Error
By Ariel Cohen
Last Thursday's attacks, which killed 30 persons, came days after bombings at two Istanbul synagogues killed 23 others. More than 500 people were wounded. An al Qaeda-linked Turkish terrorist cell, the Islamic Great Eastern Raiders' Front, has claimed responsibility for the deadly attacks. More than 1,000 Turkish volunteers are believed to have fought and trained in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya. Turkey's reluctance to send troops to Iraq did not prevent carnage on its soil.
July 14, 2003
Emerging Global Menace?
By Ariel Cohen
The September 11 terrorist attack taught the United States government a painful lesson -- it must be alert to emerging threats, including terrorism against its military assets, citizens and allies.
May 23, 2003
Energy Security at Risk
By Ariel Cohen
Energy Security at Risk
March 26, 2003
Confronting Kazakhstan's 'Dutch Disease'
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
Confronting Kazakhstan's 'Dutch Disease'
March 04, 2003
China's Quest For Eurasia's Natural Resources
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
China's Quest For Eurasia's Natural Resources
February 20, 2003
Russia-U.S.: A Beautiful Friendship?
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
Russia-U.S.: A Beautiful Friendship?
2002 Commentary
April 18, 2002
Jenin: The Big Lie
By Ariel Cohen
Jenin: The Big Lie
2001 Commentary
October 25, 2001
Policy Planning in the Fog of War
By Ariel Cohen
Policy Planning in the Fog of War
October 25, 2001
Putin Squeezes Out Yeltsin
By Ariel Cohen
Putin Squeezes Out Yeltsin
September 16, 2001
Intelligence Disaster, Bureaucratic Sclerosis
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Intelligence Disaster, Bureaucratic Sclerosis
2000 Commentary
December 20, 2000
The Wild, Wild East
By Ariel Cohen
The Wild, Wild East
January 05, 2000
Boris Yelstin: Corrupt or Courageous
By Ariel Cohen
Boris Yelstin: Corrupt or Courageous
1999 Commentary
April 15, 1999
The Collapsing U.S.-Russia Partnership
By Ariel Cohen
The Collapsing U.S.-Russia Partnership
1998 Commentary
April 07, 1998
Moscow's Hunt in the Caucasus
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
Moscow's Hunt in the Caucasus
1997 Commentary
September 11, 1997
ED091197b: Trampling Religious Freedom
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
ED091197b: Trampling Religious Freedom
1996 Commentary
February 29, 1996
ED022996b: Why We Should Be Worried About Russia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
ED022996b: Why We Should Be Worried About Russia
November 20, 2009
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