The
Caucasus has emerged as a pivotal geostrategic region within which
the interests of the U.S., Europe, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the
broader Islamic world intersect. The region will be crucial to the
economic development of the ancient Silk Road--the
cross-continental trade route between the East and Central Asia,
and Europe and the Middle East. Oil and gas reserves and future
auxiliary investments are estimated in the hundreds of billions of
dollars. Major oil and gas pipelines are planned to bring the
abundant energy resources of the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan to
global markets.
U.S.
interests in the Caucasus include ensuring the independence and
territorial integrity of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; keeping
Iran and Islamic fundamentalism in check; ensuring access to energy
resources; and preventing a re-emergence of Russian imperialism.
However, lingering ethnic conflicts, weak central governments and
institutions of civil society, and external tampering may endanger
advantageous routes for oil pipelines and even destabilize this
crucial region.
The
United States must secure its priorities by strengthening civil
societies and markets within the three caucasian states, and
developing an East-West coalition of Georgia and Azerbaijan
supported by Turkey and Israel. It must ensure that American energy
companies are able to establish oil and gas pipelines in a western
direction to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean instead of north
(to Russia) and south (to Iran). If Washington fails to achieve
these policy goals, its own interests as well as those of key U.S.
allies, such as Turkey and Israel, will be imperiled and
anti-Western elements in Russia and Iran will reap the
benefits.
Congress must set firm policy goals for
this important region. To this end, the Silk Road Strategy Act (S.
1344), authored by Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), is pending in the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, while a companion bill, H.R.
2867, introduced by Chairman Benjamin Gilman (R-NY), is before the
House International Relations Committee. Both bills would support
the independence, territorial integrity, and prosperity of
post-communist states in the South Caucasus and Central Asia while
fostering American business and strategic interests in the
region.
Specifically, the United States should:
-
Increase its political and
security support for the proposed Baku (Azerbaijan)-Ceyhan (Turkey)
pipeline. It is in America's strategic interests to ensure
the flow of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea basin via Georgia and
Turkey rather than south to Iran or north to Russia. A north-south
main route would allow Russia and Iran to control an even larger
share of the world energy market than they do now. The United
States should use its influence with the governments of Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan to ensure the construction of cross-Caspian
pipelines that will link up to the Baku-Ceyhan route, thus making
it economically viable.
-
Foster security cooperation
with Georgia. Georgia is a key U.S. ally in the region,
but it lacks the military force necessary to defend its own
borders. This weakness encourages already intense ethnic
separatism, sometimes supported by Russia, to continue. The U.S.
should strengthen Georgia's military by providing assistance in
building its command-and-control, communications, and intelligence
capabilities; training instructors for Georgian military schools;
inviting Georgian officers to study at American military colleges;
and educating officers on civilian control of the military,
especially in such areas as budgeting and procurement.
-
Lift sanctions against
Azerbaijan. The sanctions imposed by Article 907 of the
1992 Freedom Support Act were enacted during Azerbaijan's war with
Armenia over Karabakh. In 1994 the two nations signed a cease-fire,
but the sanctions are still in place, undermining the U.S. role as
an honest broker in the Karabakh conflict and blocking many types
of U.S. assistance to the Azerbaijani government. Senior Clinton
Administration representatives recently have admitted that the U.S.
would be better off without these sanctions. The House
Appropriations Committee voted on September 10, 1998, to repeal the
sanctions, but the measure was defeated by the full House on
September 17.
-
Make it clear to Moscow that
continued support for separatism in the South Caucasus will ensure
the end of U.S. assistance. Because of Russia's poor
economic performance, the Kremlin is interested in a broad range of
business and financial assistance, both from the United States and
from international financial organizations such as the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But Moscow has
supported Abkhaz separatists against the central government in
Georgia and Karabakh Armenians against Azerbaijan. Influential
Moscow hard-liners believe that instability in the Caucasus
enhances Russia's power in the region. Russia has supplied over $1
billion worth of heavy weapons clandestinely to Armenia and is
supporting Abkhaz separatists in Georgia. Washington should make it
clear that U.S. assistance to Russia and U.S. support for Russia's
requests to international financial institutions cannot continue as
long as Moscow works to destabilize the Caucasus.
-
Begin a discussion with ethnic
leaders of the Northern Caucasus. The Northern Caucasus is
a cauldron of ethnic hostilities on the verge of eruption. The
United States must increase its information-gathering and analysis
capabilities and initiate an open discussion with and among the
leaders of autonomous regions in the Northern Caucasus. This should
be a public effort aimed both at ensuring stability, mutual
understanding, and peace in the region and at giving U.S.
policymakers a better knowledge of this potentially explosive
situation.
Dr. Ariel
Cohen is Senior Policy Analyst in Russian and
Eurasian Studies in The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
International Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.