On Friday, President Bush will welcome
Nursultan Nazarbaev, the leader of Kazakhstan, to the White House.
Kazakhstan is the pivotal country in the heart of Eurasia, due to
its vast mineral resources, a solid track record of economic
growth, and geopolitical location between China and
Russia.
These days, Washington is short of
friends, especially Islamic and oil-rich ones, so every such
country counts. Kazakhstan has the largest oil and gas reserves in
the Caspian Sea basin, and is producing 1.5 million barrels of oil
a day today. It is projected to produce 2.5-3.5 million barrels of
oil a day by 2015, surpassing today's output by Qatar or
Iraq.
Kazakhstan's investment climate and
production sharing agreements (PSAs) with Western companies are
much more liberal than that of neighboring Russia, which cracked
down on the Yukos oil company in 2003, and now is severely limiting
the Sakhalin Island energy investment projects by Exxon, Shell and
others.
Kazakhstan is light years ahead of the
neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in terms of economic reform
and growth. It boasts a thriving non-energy sector, including
small- and medium-size enterprises, and has a great potential in
agriculture.
It has grown consistently at 9 percent a
year since 2000, and has quickly reached a GDP per capita of
$3,000, with further growth projected. The U.S.-Kazakhstan trade
volume doubled since 2004.
Kazakhstan invests in brains, not just
in oil. President Nazarbaev pioneered a competitive study-abroad
program, which sends 3,000 of the best and the brightest youth to
study in the U.S., Europe and Japan, all expenses paid. Some of the
graduates of this program, including those with Harvard
credentials, quickly rose to become deputy ministers and CEOs of
Kazakh companies, which are now investing abroad and appearing in
international capital markets. These days, the initial public
offering (IPO) of the national Kazakh oil company, Kazmunaigaz, is
attracting $2 billion in the London Stock
Exchange.
Kazakhstan is a global player beyond oil
and gas. For example, it is launching a joint venture with Russia
to enrich uranium, which it plans to exports to Japan and Europe.
It also has considerable supplies of coal and iron ore, having
attracted the global player Mittal Steel. And its grain exports are
increasingly important for China and Central Asia.
Recently, the outgoing Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited the country, trying to compete
with massive investment from Russia and China. This may prove too
little, too late: China and Kazakhstan have inaugurated an oil
pipeline in the beginning of 2006 and are planning to add a gas
pipeline, which will bring to China gas from Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan as well. Russia is watching these developments with a
weary eye, as it failed to prevent Chinese National Petroleum
Company (CNPC) from acquiring Canadian registered Petrokazakhstan
for $4.2 billion. Moscow wants all Kazakh gas to flow through its
national monopolist Gazprom's pipelines. Clearly, the competition
over Kazakhstan among the great powers of the U.S., energy-starved
China, and newly resurgent Russia, is on.
So far, the bilateral U.S.-Kazakh
cooperation has been exemplary. But new challenges from the north
and east loom, as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of which
China and Russia are key players, is strengthening. Moscow is also
promoting its Unified Economic Space project, to include Russia,
Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan, and the Commonwealth of
Independent States Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
-- a Warsaw Pact-style military alliance.
The U.S. today considers Kazakhstan its
principal friend and ally in the region, an anchor and a pivotal
state. This year, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice, and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman all visited
the Eurasian republic.
Kazakhstan is even more important in
Washington's eyes after the more populous Uzbekistan, with Russian
encouragement, has kicked out the U.S. Air Force base last year. As
the result of a harsh U.S. reaction to the suppression of a violent
uprising in the city of Andijan, in which hundreds died,
Uzbekistan's relations with the West have
deteriorated.
Kazakhstan, which gave up the Soviet-era
nuclear weapons in 1994, masterfully maneuvers between Moscow,
Beijing and Washington, while sending important messages to the
neighboring Iran: adhere to non-proliferation, do not develop
nuclear weapons, promote harmony in international relations and
religious tolerance.
Kazakhstan under Mr. Nazarbaev has done
exactly that. This month, the second interfaith conference on
religious tolerance has taken place in the capital Astana, which
brought to the heart of Eurasia top representatives of Catholicism,
Orthodox Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Shinto and other
faiths. The inter-faith dialogue resulted in calls to stop
terrorism and religious hatred. Kazakhstan, in which Muslim Turkic
Kazakhs live side by side with Slavic Russian speakers, Germans,
Jews, Koreans and many others, is a unique example of religious
harmony in a tough neighborhood, which has known many social,
ethnic and religious upheavals.
Still, critics raised eyebrows when
President Nazarbaev was elected last December with 91 percent of
the vote. But it is equally true that every Western poll prior to
the vote had given Nazarbaev a convincing victory, with over 70
percent of the vote. Even more worrisome were two recent murders of
prominent politicians, but these were thoroughly investigated with
the FBI's participation, and perpetrators
punished.
Kazakhstan's vociferous opposition
parties, open splits within the ruling elite, and numerous
newspapers, Web sites and non-government organizations are creating
a base for developing participatory democracy.
Fifteen years after independence,
Kazakhstan is close to the "Asian tiger" political model. There was
no prior democratic tradition to speak of. Its political
development should be compared to South Korea and Taiwan, which
developed democracy over first three decades of their
existence.
President Bush is greeting President
Nazarbaev as a friend of the U.S., while focusing on three pillars
of U.S. policy in Eurasia: energy, security and democracy. The two
countries need each other now more than ever.
Ariel
Cohen is senior research fellow at the
Heritage Foundation and the author of "Kazakhstan: Energy
Cooperation with Russia -Oil, Gas and Beyond" (BMG Publishers,
London, 2006).