PUBLICATIONS BY Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Research
Commentary
Media Appearances
2008 Research
December 18, 2008
The Oil-Price Roller Coaster: Global Challenges for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(Backgrounder #2216)
The U.S. should increase pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which are failing to meet production forecasts, to open access to IOCs while authorizing oil production in ANWR, other promising Arctic areas, and the lower 48 states to expand domestic energy production. Rising oil consumption within key oil-producing states leaves less oil for export, posing a significant constraint on future supply.
December 18, 2008
Executive Summary: The Oil-Price Roller Coaster: Global Challenges for the Obama Administration
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(Executive Summary #2216)
The U.S. should increase pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which are failing to meet production forecasts, to open access to IOCs while authorizing oil production in ANWR, other promising Arctic areas, and the lower 48 states to expand domestic energy production. Rising oil consumption within key oil-producing states leaves less oil for export, posing a significant constraint on future supply.
November 20, 2008
Europe Anti-Missile Defense System: Standing Up to Russia's Threats
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #2139)
The Obama Administration should reject Russia's missile threats and resist Russian pressure, if only to avoid the appearance of weakness and to discourage Russia's strategic revisionism
November 10, 2008
The Global Response to a Terror-Generated Energy Crisis
By William W. Beach, James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., David W. Kreutzer, Ph.D., Karen A. Campbell, Ph.D., and Hopper Smith
(Center for Data Analysis Report #08-11)
In June 2008, The Heritage Foundation invited energy scholars and policy experts to participate in a computer simulation and gaming exercise assessing the economic effects of a global petroleum energy crisis. This exercise suggests reliance on market forces and coordinated security activities did much to help restore the confidence of markets and consumers.
October 30, 2008
The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
(Backgrounder #2202)
U.S. Arctic policy is moribund and needs a comprehensive revival. The USGS estimates that the Arctic might hold up to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. To protect U.S. rights, mapping is essential and the U.S. icebreaker fleet needs to be replaced with a modern flotilla of icebreakers.
October 30, 2008
Executive Summary: The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
(Executive Summary #2202)
U.S. Arctic policy is moribund and needs a comprehensive revival. The USGS estimates that the Arctic might hold up to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. To protect U.S. rights, mapping is essential and the U.S. icebreaker fleet needs to be replaced with a modern flotilla of icebreakers.
October 27, 2008
OPEC Redux: Responding to the Russian–Iranian Gas Cartel
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2118)
On October 21 in Tehran, the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum (GECF) agreed to form a cartel. Russia, Iran, and Qatar announced that they intend to form a yet-unnamed group to “coordinate gas policy.” The United States should create a global coalition of energy consumers to oppose oil and gas cartels and to bring market principles to the natural gas industry.
August 27, 2008
The EU Must Express Solidarity with Georgia at Its Emergency Summit
By Sally McNamara and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2036)
Violent conflict is not a thing of the past for Europe, and the sooner Europe equips itself to confront the challenges of a resurgent Russia, the better. If Europe is to take Moscow’s belligerence seriously, it needs to be ready to act with enough toughness to stop the Russian bear in its tracks.
August 20, 2008
Russian Forces in the Georgian War: Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., James Carafano, Ph.D., Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2031)
After an almost 20-year hiatus, the United States and NATO allies may once again prioritize Russia as a potential threat to the common European security. NATO should send a strong signal to Moscow that its aggression will not stand. This should be done through diplomacy, international organizations, and inventive economic measures. The U.S., its allies, and Europe must do everything possible to reverse Russian aggression against Georgia and to prevent hostile action against European countries.
August 12, 2008
Saving Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2021)
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that Moscow is putting on hold hostilities in Georgia, apparently due to the pleas from Washington as well as European capitals to cease aggression against Georgia.
August 11, 2008
The Russian-Georgian War: A Challenge for the U.S. and the World
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2017)
The U.S. and its European allies should communicate to Moscow that Russia has much to lose, including hosting the 2014 winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi; membership in the G-8; and access to western markets, if the Georgian aggression is not stopped.
August 07, 2008
The Turkish Constitutional Crisis: Resolved—for Now
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2013)
Washington is facing several difficult choices with respect to its friend Turkey. On the one hand, the U.S. supports democracy worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. A ban on AKP would be a setback to U.S. policies designed to foster Middle Eastern democracy. Yet prolonged rule by AKP may transform a U.S. ally into a hostile Islamic republic.
August 05, 2008
Alexander Solzhenitsyn: The Passing of a Titan
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2010)
Alexander Solzhenitsyn (1918-2008) was a titan of twentieth century Russian literature and politics. He survived the Stalinist purges, World War II, eight years in the Gulag, communist denunciation, and even a battle with cancer. We who lived who benefited from the man’s literary and intellectual gifts should acknowledge and remember his talent, moral stature and courage.
July 21, 2008
The Russia-Venezuela Axis: Using Energy for Geopolitical Advantage
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Ray Walser, Ph.D
(WebMemo #2000)
A Russian-Venezuelan axis is a 21st-century throwback to the Cold War Soviet-Cuban alliance. Such a partnership bodes ill for energy security, for freedom in both nations, and for the Western Hemisphere.
June 09, 2008
What Is Driving the High Oil Prices?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #1951)
As oil and gasoline prices surpass $134 per barrel and $4 per gallon, respectively, it is clear that significant change is underway in global energy markets, portending major challenges for the global economy and energy security.
May 30, 2008
Executive Summary: The Proposed Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline: An Unacceptable Risk to Regional Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lisa Curtis, and Owen Graham
(Executive Summary #2139)
The Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline would be contrary to U.S. strategic interests, would destabilize the Persian Gulf, and would strengthen Russia’s grip over Central Asia, decreasing both regional and global energy security. The U.S. should encourage India and Pakistan to pursue better alternatives, such as developing their liquefied natural gas capacities and building the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India natural gas pipeline.
May 30, 2008
The Proposed Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline: An Unacceptable Risk to Regional Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lisa Curtis, and Owen Graham
(Backgrounder #2139)
The Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline would be contrary to U.S. strategic interests, would destabilize the Persian Gulf, and would strengthen Russia’s grip over Central Asia, decreasing both regional and global energy security. The U.S. should encourage India and Pakistan to pursue better alternatives, such as developing their liquefied natural gas capacities and building the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India natural gas pipeline.
May 13, 2008
The U.S. Should Oppose Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian Masters in Lebanon
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1922)
As President Bush prepares to travel to the Middle East, Lebanon's survival as a multi-ethnic, multi-denominational state is at stake. Hezbollah, the Shi'ite terrorist army "made in Iran," demonstrated its force by occupying the capital, Beirut.
May 12, 2008
Congress Should Not Tamper with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1920)
Congress is about to legislate that the U.S. government stop purchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Some believe that this would bring gasoline prices down; in reality, however, shutting down the oil supply to the SPR would jeopardize the security of the United States, and infringe upon the executive authority of the President to ensure the nation’s defense, while having no appreciate effect on gas prices. Congress should leave the SPR alone.
May 06, 2008
Russia's Presidential Transition: Vladimir Putin Remains in Charge
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1917)
Amid Kremlin pomp and circumstance, Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev will be inaugurated the third president of Russia on May 7. His presidency, however, is likely to be very different than that of his two predecessors, Boris N. Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.
April 30, 2008
The West Should Unite in Support of Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1907)
Throughout April, Russia has escalated its political and military pressure on its neighbor Georgia. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, President Vladimir Putin reportedly threatened to recognize the independence of the breakaway autonomous republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia was granted a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for eventual accession to NATO. On April 16, despite France and Germany balking at providing a MAP, and apparently as retribution for the West’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence, Putin instructed the Russian Foreign Ministry to upgrade the legal and economic ties between Russia and the secessionist governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, violating Georgian sovereignty.
April 01, 2008
The Sochi Bush-Putin Summit: Last Chance to Improve Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1877)
Improved relations between the United States and Russia is in the interest of both countries, and President Bush can make it his legacy.
February 25, 2008
Russia's Presidential Elections: Management Reshuffle for "Russia Inc."?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1825)
The status quo will likely continue following the election of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin's chosen successor, on March 2.
February 11, 2008
Russia on the March: The Return of the Red Square Parades
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1805)
The world should take notice of Russia’s increasing militarism.
February 11, 2008
Russia on the March: The Return of the Red Square Parades
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1805)
The world should take notice of Russia’s increasing militarism.
2007 Research
December 11, 2007
Russian Succession: Putin Prime Minister, Medvedev President
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1731)
In all likelihood, Vladimir Putin will remain the number one politician in Russia for years to come.
November 19, 2007
Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2084)
U.S.–Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War, and many trends in Russian foreign policy are justifiably disturbing. U.S. officials should develop a comprehensive strategy that serves America’s objectives, keeping in mind the significant internal vulnerabilities of the Russian state. Russia, given its lack of strategic allies, can ill afford to "lose" the West.
November 19, 2007
Executive Summary: Domestic Factors Driving Russia's Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2084)
Executive Summary: U.S.–Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War, and many trends in Russian foreign policy are justifiably disturbing. U.S. officials should develop a comprehensive strategy that serves America’s objectives, keeping in mind the significant internal vulnerabilities of the Russian state. Russia, given its lack of strategic allies, can ill afford to "lose" the West.
November 05, 2007
Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2083)
Russia is consolidating its grip on oil and gas: the economic lifeblood of Europe. The U.S. and Europe should support new transit lines that bypass Russia, and European countries should cooperate strategically to ensure their energy security. The U.S. and its European allies must combine their efforts to find and implement innovative ways to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
October 18, 2007
Armenian Genocide Resolution Bad for U.S. Middle East Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Owen Graham, and Garrett Murch
(WebMemo #1668)
This resolution would strain an already fragile relationship with Turkey and endanger U.S. security interests.
October 15, 2007
Russian Trade Associations: Important Partners for America
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Viacheslav Evseev, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2077)
Further advancement of institutionalized business representation in Russia will require joint action by government, business, and Russian trade associations themselves. This should include granting tax exemptions for membership fees and donations, stronger participation by associations in economic decision making, and improving the associations' internal management and professional practices.
October 02, 2007
Elections in Ukraine: A Second Chance for the Orange Revolution?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1654)
The United States must assist Ukraine's transition to a rules-based market system.
September 28, 2007
Ukraine's Economic Benefits from Integration into the Euro-Atlantic Community
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1045)
Europe and its humanistic tradition have always been central to Ukrainian civilization, and Ukraine has been indispensable for Europe. Regardless of whether Ukraine ultimately joins the European Union or the WTO, it will benefit from those extensive domestic reforms, as Turkey has done on its path to European integration.
August 08, 2007
After the Elections: Washington's Turkish Dilemma
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1583)
The party that leads Turkey's government, the AKP, is not the steadfast U.S. ally that its predecessors often were and threatens to turn Turkey from the U.S. and the West and toward its Islamic neighbors.
August 06, 2007
Russia's Race for the Arctic
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1582)
Russia's attempted grab of Arctic resources is a cause for concern, and the U.S. must engage its allies--especially Canada and the Nordic countries--to formulate a strong response.
July 13, 2007
Africa's Oil and Gas Sector: Implications for U.S. Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Rafal Alasa
(Backgrounder #2052)
Development and transformation of Africa’s energy sector presents a unique opportunity for cooperation between African countries and energy consumers, particularly since Africa is geographically closer to the U.S. and safer than the Middle East; but to attract scarce private global capital, the investment climate must be improved, and significant political and economic hurdles must be overcome.
June 27, 2007
How to Confront Russia's Anti-American Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #2048)
As Moscow rejects Western norms, sells weapons to America's enemies, and seeks a natural gas monopoly, especially to influence Europe, U.S. policymakers need to remember that Moscow values certainty in relations and respects power and action. Deeds, not words, are needed to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied.
June 27, 2007
Executive Summary: How to Confront Russia's Anti-American Foreign Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #2048)
As Moscow rejects Western norms, sells weapons to America’s enemies, and seeks a natural gas monopoly, especially to influence Europe, U.S. policymakers need to remember that Moscow values certainty in relations and respects power and action. Deeds, not words, are needed to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied.
June 19, 2007
Senate Bill 1419, Title VII: A Partial Measure to Increase U.S. Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Owen Graham
(WebMemo #1514)
While Title VII has some laudable features, it ignores many short- and long-term threats to U.S. energy security.
June 05, 2007
The G-8 Summit: Putting U.S.-Russia Relations Back On Track
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1484)
President Bush should engage President Putin with a carrot-and-stick approach to repair the United States’ relationship with a resurgent geostrategic heavyweight.
June 05, 2007
Lessons of the Six-Day War
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1489)
On its 40th anniversary, Israel’s stunning victory in the Six-Day War presents important lessons about leadership and strategy in dealing with threats to freedom, then and now.
May 21, 2007
Time for Congress to Lift OPEC's Immunity
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1463)
At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, fighting OPEC’s anticompetitive practices would be a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector.
May 14, 2007
The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1021)
The dependence of the U.S. and the global economy on oil is growing, which can have dire consequences for the economic well-being of the United States. Recognizing the inherent, systemic, and long-term instability of the global oil markets is the first step in addressing the problem the U.S. is facing.
May 03, 2007
Israel's Coming Political Earthquake
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1441)
Washington must continue to support Israel as its strongest ally in the Middle East but recognize also that Mr. Olmert's government is finished.
April 26, 2007
Boris Yeltsin's Historic Role
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1433)
If Russia evolves toward a model of Western democracy, Yeltsin will be remembered as its founding father.
April 12, 2007
Gas OPEC: A Stealthy Cartel Emerges
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1423)
Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel is emerging.
March 20, 2007
Two Cheers for the President's Brazilian Ethanol Initiative
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1401)
Cooperation with Brazil on ethanol will benefit U.S. energy security and U.S. stature in the Western hemisphere, as well as send a message to the truculent leader of Venezuela.
March 05, 2007
Putin's Middle East Visit: Russia is Back
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1382)
After a 20-year hiatus, Russia is forcing its way back through an open Middle East door. Washington decisionmakers had better take note.
February 12, 2007
Confronting Putin's Anti-U.S. Crusade
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1356)
The cold shower that Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on the United States at the international security conference in Munich last weekend should not have come as a surprise. After all, Putin himself and a host of other senior spokesmen have said as much in the past. Clearly, the post-communist honeymoon is over, dead, and buried. The United States should avoid a rhetorical confrontation with Moscow. Deeds, not words, are necessary to send a message to the Kremlin that the U.S. and its allies will not be bullied, but that Washington is not interested in renewed hostility. The U.S. should continue cooperation with Russia on matters of mutual concern, such as energy, non-proliferation, and space.
January 24, 2007
State of the Union 2007: Recognizing the Threat of Strategic Oil Dependency
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1324)
The President points his finger at OPEC.
2006 Research
December 14, 2006
Permanent Normal Trade Relations for Russia Would Benefit the U.S. and Russia
By Daniella Markheim and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1286)
Congressional approval of Permanent Normal Trading Relations for Russia is an important step in strengthening the U.S.–Russia economic relationship.
December 13, 2006
U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Conway Irwin
(Backgrounder #1990)
It is time for the U.S. to launch a coordinated policy effort in the Black Sea area to gain support for addressing such pressing issues as the rise of Iran, WMD proliferation, cooperation in the war on terrorism, and energy security, but the U.S. also needs to tread lightly, offering support where possible and backing off where necessary.
December 13, 2006
U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Conway Irwin
(Executive Summary #1990)
Executive Summary: It is time for the U.S. to launch a coordinated policy effort in the Black Sea area to gain support for addressing such pressing issues as the rise of Iran, WMD proliferation, cooperation in the war on terrorism, and energy security, but the U.S. also needs to tread lightly, offering support where possible and backing off where necessary.
November 17, 2006
The Bush-Putin Hanoi Summit: Iran, Georgia, Energy, and WTO Protocol on the Agenda
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1257)
The summit meeting between President Bush and Russian President Putin provides an opportunity to discuss the key issues of Iran, energy access, trade, and Georgia.
November 15, 2006
U.S. Interests and Central Asia Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1984)
U.S. involvement and assistance contribute to the economic, political, social, and security development of the states of Central Asia. Despite difficult issues in relations between the U.S. and Central Asian states, it is in America’s interest to pursue common goals such as energy development, fighting terrorism, and limiting nuclear non-proliferation.
November 13, 2006
Countering Iran's Oil Weapon
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., James Phillips and William L. T. Schirano
(Backgrounder #1982)
To succeed in deterring Iran from developing a nuclear capability, the Bush Administration needs to maximize its leverage in this dispute by maintaining a strong military presence in the Persian Gulf, improving the Navy’s countermine capabilities, and creating contingency plans to minimize the effects of any disruption in the flow of oil.
October 26, 2006
The North European Gas Pipeline Threatens Europe's Energy Security
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1980)
To avoid EU overdependence on Russian natural gas, the U.S. and EU governments should encourage alternative pipeline proposals; develop alternatives to pipelines for the transit of natural gas, especially liquid natural gas; work with other G-8 members to persuade Russia to ratify the Energy Charter; and support intensified research and development of alternative market-based energy sources.
October 10, 2006
U.S. Policy and the Georgian-Russian Crisis
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1235)
Crisis looms in the Caucasus
September 15, 2006
After the G-8: The Future Orbit of U.S.–Russian Relations
By David Kramer, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Andrew Kuchins, Ph.D., and Angela Stent, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #962)
The best option for the U.S. and Russia is a pragmatic and realistic relationship based on the cooperative pursuit of common interests.
September 07, 2006
The Dragon Looks West: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
By Ariel Cohen
(Heritage Lecture #961)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a grouping of Russia, China, and several Central Asian states, has an ambitious economic and security agenda infused with Chinese and Russian suspicion of U.S. designs in Eurasia and a desire to reduce U.S. influence in Central Asia.
September 06, 2006
Countering Hugo Chávez’s Anti-U.S. Arms Alliance
By Stephen Johnson, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and William L. T. Schirano
(Executive Memorandum #1010)
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s military buildup and aggressive policies could endanger U.S. allies in Latin America and a major source of U.S. oil imports. U.S. policymakers should strengthen regional alliances to prevent aggression, sanction Chávez in international forums, and press suppliers like Russia to withhold sales of offensive weapons systems
August 02, 2006
Israel Should Confront the Forces Behind Hezbollah
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1184)
Panelists discuss how Israel should confront Hezbollah.
July 20, 2006
U.S. Should Not Impose a Ceasefire Deadline on Israel
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1168)
An unprovoked attack by the Hezbollah ("Party of God," in Arabic) terrorist organization across an internationally recognized border resulted in the killing of eight Israeli soldiers and the taking of two hostages and has plunged the Middle East into a new war.
June 30, 2006
President Bush's Agenda for the G-8 Meeting in St. Petersburg
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1948)
The G-8 meeting on July 15 and the Bush–Putin summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, may mark the most serious tests of U.S.–Russian and East–West relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mutually amassed grievances have led some in Washington to question whether President George W. Bush should attend and whether Russia should remain in the G-8.
June 13, 2006
The U.S. Challenge at the Shanghai Summit
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1124)
On June 15 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will gather for their annual meeting at the birthplace of this Eurasian bloc—Shanghai.
June 01, 2006
Putin's Legacy and United Russia's New Ideology
By Ariel Cohen
(Backgrounder #1940)
Vladislav Surkov's February 2006 speech to a United Russia political seminar combines democratic and market rhetoric with deliberate actions of power centralization and ideological and economic nationalism bordering on protectionism. It also provides a number of reasons for the United States to reevaluate its policies toward Russia on the basis of what is realistic and possible.
May 31, 2006
The Real Culprit Behind Price-Gouging: OPEC
By Ariel Cohen and William L T Schirano
(WebMemo #1102)
State-owned oil companies that make up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and control 80 percent of the world's oil reserves, continue to gouge the American consumer through a series of monopolistic practices. This week, OPEC is expected to announce that it will maintain its current output level—a decision that will do little to ease oil prices. If Congress is serious about alleviating the price-gouging that contributes to high gas prices, it ought to begin by allowing the federal government to sue OPEC. At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, this measure would be a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector. Indeed, this move is long overdue and points the way to a second, more important step: allowing private antitrust suits against OPEC.
April 11, 2006
Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections: What Next?
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1034)
On March 26, Ukraine's voters elected 450 members to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, from an array of 45 parties and blocs. Charles Tannock, a British Member of the European Parliament (MEP), who oversaw the Parliament's election observers, said Ukraine had passed an important test of democracy in an "exemplary" fashion.
April 07, 2006
Reducing U.S. Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1926)
To protect its energy security, including its economic health and defense capabilities, from the growing political instability, terrorism, and potential warfare in the Middle East, the U.S. needs to limit its dependence on foreign oil, especially from the Middle East, shifting to other sources of supply and eventually to new types of energy sources.
April 03, 2006
Kadima's Victory and U.S. Policy on the Arab-Israeli Conflict
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1027)
Ehud Olmert's Kadima (Forward) party won less than one-quarter of the available Knesset seats (29 out of 120) in the Israeli parliamentary elections held March 28. A plurality of voters seems to favor unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and left-leaning economic policies.
March 31, 2006
Russian Spying for Saddam Demands a Careful U.S. Response
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1023)
On March 25, the Pentagon reported that Russia had given Saddam Hussein intelligence about U.S. military plans for the invasion of Iraq back in the spring of 2003.
March 31, 2006
Preventing a Russian-Georgian Military Confrontation
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1024)
The pending appeal of Eduard Kokoity, leader of the secessionist territory of South Ossetia, to the Russian Federation's Constitutional Court to allow his territory to join Mother Russia could trigger destabilization in the Caucasus, sparking a Russian-Georgian military confrontation and unpredictable consequences for the region and the world.
March 16, 2006
Flawed Presidential Elections in Belarus: How the West Should Respond
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1016)
The U.S. and EU should take steps to strengthen the Belarusian opposition and prod the Lukashenko regime to change course.
March 06, 2006
U.S. Should Warn Russia Over Its "Soviet" Middle East Policy
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #1007)
Russia breaks with the West in a big way.
February 01, 2006
State of the Union 2006: Democracy in the Middle East
By Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #983)
Democracy is about more than just winning elections.
January 09, 2006
NATO's Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and the Greater Middle East
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #919)
NATO has reached a watershed and needs to evaluate both its geographic scope and the spectrum of threats it is willing to address. The Alliance needs to view its capabilities with clarity and sobriety and to approach future missions with realism, both military and economic. With the survival of our civilization at stake, failure is not an option.
January 04, 2006
Russia's Gas Attack on Ukraine: An Uneasy Truce
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #954)
Moscow's attempt to deal a decisive blow to President Victor Yushchenko.
2005 Research
October 25, 2005
Increasing the Global Transportation Fuel Supply
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #986)
An unabated and sharp hike in oil prices in the future could cause a global recession, as has happened twice in the past. To avoid a massive crisis, the U.S. government therefore needs to develop a comprehensive strategy to change the oil investment climate overseas; build more tankers, pipelines, and refineries; and remove tariffs on imported ethanol.
October 24, 2005
Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a Collision Course?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #901)
U.S. support for small countries or "multi-color" revolutions on the Russian periphery may be important, but it should not dictate U.S. grand strategy, which is defined by national interests. At the end of the day, we cannot support our friends by derailing our relations with Moscow. Nor should we shy away from the important task of promoting democracy worldwide.
September 30, 2005
Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1883)
The balance of power in Eurasia may be changing, and not in favor of the United States. Today, Moscow and Beijing share a belief in diluting American global supremacy and opposing the U.S. rhetoric of freedom and democracy. Washington needs to formulate a clear strategy to preserve U.S. influence in the region, develop energy resources, cultivate democratic reforms, and oppose authoritarianism.
August 18, 2005
Uzbekistan's Eviction Notice: What Next?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #978)
The U.S. should expand military, intelligence, and law enforcement cooperation with the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; secure regional access for military activities and negotiate overflight rights with Uzbekistan; and reach out to a broad range of political forces and individuals in Uzbekistan.
July 14, 2005
Time to Relaunch Ukraine's Economic Policy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1869)
Relaunching the effort to put Ukraine on the road to economic reform, increased domestic and foreign investment, and prosperity will require bold leadership, commitment to economic freedom, and qualitative improvement in the rule of law and protection of property rights. If done right, U.S.-Ukrainian cooperation on economic policy will greatly benefit the peoples of both countries.
June 29, 2005
Bush at Fort Bragg: A Steadfast Course to Victory
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #780)
The next steps in the long war.
June 27, 2005
Congress Should Lift OPEC's Immunity
By Ariel Cohen and William L.T. Schirano
(WebMemo #777)
A first step towards a free market in oil production.
June 14, 2005
No Good Reason To Close Gitmo
By Jack Spencer, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Jim Phillips, and Alane Kochems
(WebMemo #763)
Why those who would close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay are wrong.
June 02, 2005
The Khodorkovsky Verdict: A Setback for U.S.-Russian Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #753)
The consequences of the YUKOS Affair are just beginning to sink in.
May 20, 2005
Preventing a Nightmare Scenario: Terrorist Attacks Using Russian Nuclear Weapons and Materials
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1854)
During the Cold War, NATO and the Warsaw Pact were led by strong nation-states with strong chains of command. Today's multiple terrorist players are driven by ideology, religious interpretation, and language that many Americans do not comprehend; America and its allies have no alternative but to combat them while preventing them from obtaining and using weapons of mass destruction.
May 13, 2005
The Uzbekistan Dilemma
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #744)
An Islamist uprising could throw the region into turmoil.
May 04, 2005
President Bush's Messages to the Baltic States, Russia, and Georgia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #736)
A challenging agenda on this trip.
April 08, 2005
The ADVANCE Democracy Act: A Dose of Realism Needed
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Helle C. Dale
(Executive Memorandum #968)
The promotion of democracy remains an important U.S. foreign policy goal, but the ADVANCE Democracy Act could hinder it. The U.S. should continue its tradition of aiding burgeoning democracies, but in a way that also takes into account U.S. vital interests, especially national security, and does not limit the executive branch's ability to conduct foreign policy.
April 01, 2005
After Maskhadov: Islamist Terrorism Threatens North Caucasus and Russia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1838)
The death of former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov may be Vladimir Putin's short-term gain, but it is Russia's long-term loss. Moscow will now confront the deadly face of Islamic extremist terrorism. Washington should cooperate selectively with Russia in tracking and intercepting terrorists' financial flows, technical expertise, and training capabilities.
March 24, 2005
Helping Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Revolution
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #701)
How to spread democracy and avoid bloodshed in Kyrgyzstan.
February 28, 2005
Russian Oil After YUKOS: Implications for the United States
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #961)
America needs to push for energy cooperation at the highest level, first at the Bush–Putin Summits in Bratislava and Moscow and then at the G–7/G–8 Summit in Scotland. This means, among other things, a framework agreement and conditioning Russian entry into the WTO on the creation of transparent rules and investment protection for U.S. companies that invest in Russia.
February 20, 2005
Putin's Crisis: Dealing with Russia's Political Upheaval
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #671)
Maintaining a working relationship with Russia while supporting long-term goals will not be easy.
January 27, 2005
Getting Ukraine to Safe Shores
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #956)
To help make Ukraine's transition to democracy a success, the Bush Administration should facilitate Ukraine's membership in the World Trade Organization and European Union, lift Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions, expand NATO's cooperation with Kyiv, offer a bridging loan for economic restructuring, and state unequivocally that the U.S. will not tolerate threats to Ukraine's territorial integrity.
2004 Research
November 12, 2004
The Lessons of Ukraine: Russia's Growing Influence in Eurasia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #949)
The muted U.S. responses to recent power shifts in Ukraine and Belarus demonstrate that the U.S. is unwilling to challenge Moscow's growing influence. The U.S. should support Ukrainian groups that are committed to democracy, support sovereignty and territorial integrity of all post-Soviet states, and expand high-level diplomatic dialogue with Moscow about contentious issues.
October 25, 2004
U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation After Beslan
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1809)
As Vladimir Putin moves Russia toward greater centralization, the U.S. should encourage democracy, political pluralism, and media freedoms in Russia; discourage Russia from becoming more authoritarian and expansionist; support the independence and territorial integrity of Russia's weaker neighbors; and avoid unnecessary confrontation with Moscow while shoring up and expanding U.S.-Russian cooperation in the global war on terrorism.
October 15, 2004
The U.S. Should Oppose Dictatorship in Belarus
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #945)
Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenka thinks he is the permanent ruler of that country, but the people of Belarus deserve better. The executive branch and Congress need to do more to support democracy in Belarus.
August 12, 2004
Minimizing Mischief in Venezuela, Stabilizing the U.S. Oil Supply
By Stephen Johnson and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1787)
On August 15, Venezuelans will decide whether to retain or recall President Hugo Chávez, who has impoverished his citizens and turned the state oil industry into a political tool. The United States should support international scrutiny of Venezuela's referendum, diversify its sources of petroleum, and engage Latin America to help strengthen allies' nascent democratic institutions and market economies.
May 19, 2004
Addressing Nigeria's Economic Problems and the Islamist Terrorist Threat
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Brett D. Schaefer
(Executive Memorandum #933)
Ongoing assaults against Nigerian oil production, general political instability, economic mismanagement, and the threat of Islamist radicalism necessitate that the U.S. work with Nigeria to address these problems. This should be done by encouraging Nigeria to improve its economy, secure its oil, combat corruption, and enforce the rule of law.
May 04, 2004
After the Uzbekistan Terror Attacks: Don't Sanction, but Press for Democracy
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #496)
Despite claims to the contrary from the human rights community, Washington should understand that poverty and repression are not the root causes of terrorism.
March 30, 2004
A Strategy to Democratize Belarus
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #826)
Belarus, like Ukraine and Moldova, has not fully completed its transition from the Soviet system to democratic capitalism. As the October 2004 parliamentary elections are a priority both for democratic forces in Belarus and for Western friends of Belarussian democracy, it is the duty of neighbors near and far to help Belarus complete the process and achieve democracy, security, and prosperity.
March 09, 2004
Recent Changes in Russia and Their Impact on U.S.-Russian Relations
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Yevgeny Volk, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1734)
As President Vladimir Putin awaits re-election for a second term with no significant challenges, U.S.-Russian relations are in limbo. Nevertheless, there are ways by which the United States and Russia can restore their cooperation on the basis of pragmatism and the pursuit of compatible national interests, including enhancing each other's security, economic ties, democracy, and human rights.
March 04, 2004
Models and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1730)
Both the developed and developing worlds need a steady supply of oil, but abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability, and even armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
March 04, 2004
Executive Summary: Models and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1730)
Executive Summary: Both the developed and developing worlds need a steady supply of oil, but abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability, and even armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
February 26, 2004
Putin Sacks the Cabinet
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #434)
All the world knows who the next Russian President will be, but the real game in Moscow today is: who will Mr. Putin appoint as the next Prime Minister?
January 12, 2004
America's Georgian Challenge
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #910)
Because the success of the new government of Georgia is important to the security and prosperity of the South Caucasus and Eurasia, the U.S. should encourage economic reform, institution building, and anti-corruption measures; foster the Georgian government's contacts with the separatist leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; and maintain a dialogue with Moscow on Georgia's territorial reintegration.
2003 Research
December 12, 2003
Russian Duma Elections: How the U.S. Should Respond to "Controlled Democracy"
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #908)
As a result of its recent parliamentary elections, Russia will be more difficult diplomatically and less hospitable to foreign investment. President Vladimir Putin's judgment in using his new parliamentary support and popularity will define both his relationship with the West and his place in history, and his resistance to the virulent nationalism and populist socialism of his party's hangers-on will make the difference between Russia's progress and failure.
December 12, 2003
Russian Duma Elections
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #908)
Russia now has a Duma that is more nationalist and less democratic. While emerging democracy is often a two-steps-forward, one-step-back proposition, it is in everyone's interest that Russia pursue civic society, free markets, and political liberty. The U.S. and the West should not hesitate to remind Moscow of this.
November 26, 2003
U.S. Should Support Georgian Democracy and Independence
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #376)
The U.S. should acknowledge the historic role Eduard Shevardnadze played in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, while supporting the new Georgian democratic leadership.
November 14, 2003
Riyadh Attack Threatens U.S. Energy Security
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #368)
Al Qaeda's massive attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on November 8, killed 17 and wounded over 120. This attack, the second since May, and the closure of the U.S. Embassy, have targeted the Saudi royal family and foreign presence in the kingdom, which makes the oil economy tick. It also gave a boost to the ultimate goal of Usama bin Laden to drive the "infidels" from the Land of Two Mosques and topple the monarchy. As the result, Western oil supply is at risk.
November 07, 2003
The YUKOS Affair: Protecting Democracy, Private Property, and the Rule of Law
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #906)
With the attack on YUKOS, the ex-KGB faction in the Kremlin has reverted to state-led repression against private capital and independent power centers. A crackdown on the independent media has been going on for three years. The U.S. should send a strong signal to President Vladimir Putin that such policies may cost Moscow America's good will and cause damage in tens of billions of dollars.
October 29, 2003
Radical Islam and U.S. Interests in Central Asia
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(Testimony #9999)
U.S. power projection on a global scale due to the war on terrorism raises new issues, especially with regards to the attitude of regional powers, elites, and population, toward the American presence.
October 16, 2003
U.S. Should Promote WTO as Substitute to Eurasian Common Economic Space
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #349)
Russia's agreement to create a Common Economic Space with Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan is an attempt at integration amongst countries that comprise 90 percent of Russia's trade with the Commonwealth of Independent States. U.S. officials have grounds for concern, as they would like to prevent the emergence of a new Russian-dominate entity in Eurasia.
October 01, 2003
Restarting the Flow: Restoring Iraqi Oil Production
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1693)
Without Iraqi oil, the U.S. taxpayer will have to foot the bill for the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq, U.S. consumers will pay higher prices at the pump, and both the U.S. and global economies will endure an indirect tax by paying higher energy prices. The alternative to restoring Iraqi oil production (misery for the Iraqi people and victory for the terrorists) is not an option.
September 19, 2003
The Bush-Putin Summit Agenda: Russian Peacekeepers for Iraq?
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #901)
At the September 25-27 Camp David summit, Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin should put recent U.S.-Russian differences over the Iraq war behind them and close ranks on rebuilding Iraq and defeating al-Qaeda. President Bush should request Russian support for sending U.S.-led U.N. peacekeepers to Iraq, offer to expand Russian participation in the reconstruction of Iraq, and insist that Russia cooperate in blocking Iran's nuclear weapons program.
September 12, 2003
Saudi-Russian Rapprochement: U.S. Should Beware
By Dr. Ariel Cohen
(WebMemo #336)
The Bush Administration needs to monitor a new geopolitical shift that is taking place following the visit of de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah to Russia on September 1-2. Moscow and Riyadh, old rivals, now claim to have found a common agenda, which spans oil, terrorism, and arms sales.
August 06, 2003
Aliev Dynasty or Azer
